The NHL announced Thursday that it will move forward with the final phase of its draft lottery on Monday, Aug. 10 at 6 p.m. ET.
In the initial draft lottery in June, a placeholder team won the first overall selection. The second phase of the lottery will be a draw involving the eight teams that are eliminated during the qualifying play-in round to determine which team gets the top pick.
The only team that has been eliminated from the qualifying round as of Thursday morning is the New York Rangers.
Each team will have an equal 12.5% chance at the No. 1 selection.
The seven teams that do not win the top pick will be assigned 2020 NHL Draft positions 9-15 in inverse order of their points percentages at the time the regular season was paused.
The projected top pick of the draft is QMJHL phenom Alexis Lafreniere.
Somehow, the No. 12 seed Canadiens and Blackhawks each moved within a victory of clinching their qualifying series Wednesday night. Four stats help explain how Montreal stunned Pittsburgh 4-3 and Chicago rallied to edge Edmonton by the same score.
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6
Weber, Petry, Chiarot's combined points
Generally, a team's most reliable sources of offense are its power-play units and No. 1 line. Even subpar power plays score close to 20% of the time, and it stands to reason that three skilled forwards will click given enough shifts to operate together.
Those wellsprings have so far failed the Canadiens against Pittsburgh. They've struck out on 10 turns with the man advantage, and Phillip Danault, Brendan Gallagher, and Tomas Tatar remain goalless through three games. Context mitigates each of these shortcomings - Montreal scored twice soon after power plays expired Wednesday, and Danault and Gallagher did assist Jeff Petry's Game 1 overtime winner - but it's clear these go-tos haven't supplied the juice needed to spark the play-in round's biggest possible upset.
Shea Weber scores in the first period of Game 3. Chase Agnello-Dean / NHL / Getty Images
No matter, as that upset's indeed at hand in Toronto, and Montreal's best defensemen deserve the majority of credit. Petry, Shea Weber, and Ben Chiarot's mitts were all over the effort that pushed the Penguins to the brink of elimination. All four Habs goals started or ended with one of those sturdy rearguards spearheading or joining a rush, shooting for a rebound or tap-in, or, in Petry's case, planting his feet on the goal line in the corner and wiring a nasty wrister off Matt Murray's collarbone and in.
Petry's snipe was the 32-year-old's second winning goal in three games and, remarkably, his ninth in the past two seasons. (He only scored six such goals across his previous eight years in the NHL.) Weber's first-period goal was one of five shots and three high-danger chances he managed, each number a team high in Game 3. Not to be handily outdone, Chiarot supplemented his two assists with a hit that erased Patric Hornqvist behind the net during a monumental late Penguins power play, occasioning a clearance and helping preserve Montreal's slim lead.
At anything less than their joint best, Danault, Gallagher, and Tatar usually can't hope to replicate the impact of, say, Sidney Crosby's line. The Habs have an eye on the round of 16 because this defensive trio stepped up instead.
.951
Price's overall SV% at even strength
About Crosby: Pittsburgh's captain recorded an assist but no goals Wednesday after scoring at even strength in each of Games 1 and 2. Third-line center Teddy Blueger was the only Penguin who solved Carey Price in five-on-five play, while all four of Montreal's goals came in that phase of the game.
Carey Price makes a glove save on Jake Guentzel. Andre Ringuette / Getty Images
Price's 30-save performance wasn't as plainly magnificent as the 37 saves he made in Game 2, when only he kept the Habs' 3-1 loss from devolving into a blowout. But he didn't flinch in the face of tours de force from Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, and Blueger's forward units. Those lines dominated Montreal at five-on-five, posting respective expected goals percentages of 72.09, 80.68, and 84.58. To put that in words: this game should have been a rout, too.
Price has now rebuffed 77 of the 81 shots he's seen at even strength this series, producing that .951 figure above. It's a crude comparison, but Murray's personal .901 mark is a whole lot worse and evinces the advantage Montreal has fashioned for itself outside of special-teams play. That Pittsburgh's up 3-0 in the series in power-play goals hasn't mattered to date.
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2
Edmonton's losses this series when Draisaitl scores
Rare were the nights in 2019-20 when a tally from the NHL's scoring champion didn't guarantee an Oilers victory. Edmonton's record in such games this past regular season was 24-5-2, as Sportsnet's telecast noted not long after Leon Draisaitl got on the board in Game 3. By rallying to tip tying and go-ahead goals past Mikko Koskinen in the waning minutes, the Blackhawks went against the grain yet again.
In isolation, the two goals and an assist Draisaitl bagged in 24:22 of ice time were a terrific sign. His six shots (four from the slot) were six more than he directed at Corey Crawford in Game 2, when Connor McDavid was left to bear Edmonton's scoring load and responded with his first playoff hat trick. When they excel simultaneously - when the two of them and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins each conjure five individual scoring chances, as happened Wednesday - that's supposed to be enough to quash the likes of a No. 12 seed.
Jonathan Toews (19) and Patrick Kane celebrate a goal in front of Leon Draisaitl. Andy Devlin / NHL / Getty Images
The Oilers have scored 13 goals in this series, but only one with McDavid and Draisaitl both on the bench. What a shame it would be if depth woes - that lethal dearth of consistent help - eliminate Edmonton's stars before the playoffs start in earnest. What a challenge, in all likelihood, they'll have to foot alone again in Game 4.
8:17
Chicago's offensive-zone possession time
On the other hand, what a throwback showing Jonathan Toews and Patrick Kane have put forth in this series.
If the Blackhawks prevailing on a night when Draisaitl scored was unlikely, the two-goal turnaround that clinched the comeback was the warranted result of posting up in the Oilers' end for almost half a period. Sustaining that pressure afforded Chicago the chance to wreak occasional havoc with Koskinen's sightline. Screens off point shots prevented the netminder from getting a read on Olli Maatta's first-period slapper and Matthew Highmore and Toews' redirected goals late. Keep pucks deep for long enough and something like that's bound to happen.
Toews was superb Wednesday, leading his line to a 75% shot share at five-on-five, while Kane controlled the puck in Chicago's offensive zone for an astonishing 2:12, according to data provided by SPORTLOGIQ. These running mates were 22 and 21 years old when they celebrated their breakthrough Stanley Cup title in 2010. McDavid and Draisaitl are 23 and 24, fifth- and sixth-year players who've gotten as far as the second round. In a couple of ways, Game 3 was another reminder that their situations aren't equivalent.
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Bonus stat: 75%
One historical nugget for the road: NHL teams that win Game 3 to go up two games to one in a best-of-five series have finished the job in 21 of 28 cases, or three-quarters of the time, according to the league.
For context, that sample extends as far back as the 1918 Stanley Cup Final between the Toronto Arenas and Vancouver Millionaires. The most recent example is from 1986, right before best-of-sevens became the prevailing format in all rounds. Still, it gives you an idea of what the Penguins and Oilers are up against as they enter Game 4 trying to engineer reversals of fortune.
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Thursday is a massive day on the ice with a pair of crucial Game 3's, a couple of intriguing round-robin contests, and one team facing elimination.
So let's get straight to some winners.
Vancouver Canucks (-105) @ Minnesota Wild (-115)
I've said about all I've needed to say about the Wild and Canucks, picking Minnesota in my series preview, in Game 1, and Game 2. The Wild let me down for the first time on Tuesday, but despite the loss, their performance reaffirmed why I'm much higher on this team than the Canucks.
Through two games, Vancouver posted expected goals marks of 1.02 and 0.79 at five-on-five, while Minnesota managed tallies of 1.86 and 1.19. Trailing 1-0 in the series, the Canucks played with more desperation in Game 2, with Jacob Markstrom doing his part to prevent them from falling into a 2-0 hole. With the series level, and the Wild now getting the second change as the home team, they take care of business in a decisive Game 3.
Pick: Wild (-115)
Washington Capitals (-125) @ Philadelphia Flyers (+105)
These round-robin games have lacked intensity, to put it mildly. They've improved slowly, but without the threat of elimination, the excitement level has paled in comparison to the play-ins. This one should be a lot more fun, at least.
Brian Elliott, whose numbers were underwhelming this season, starts here for the Flyers as Carter Hart gets a breather. The Capitals were great offensively in their first game, posting an excellent expected goals mark of 5.15. Andrei Vasilevskiy's strong outing helped limit the damage against Tampa Bay, but Washington will have much better luck against Elliott.
The Capitals are a middle of the road team defensively, and with the Flyers consistently producing on offense, this has all the makings of an entertaining, high-scoring affair.
Pick: Over 6 (-115)
Calgary Flames (-165) @ Winnipeg Jets (+145)
We get a great price on the Jets here as well, following their 6-2 Game 3 loss.That score doesn't inspire much confidence, but the reality is not nearly as concerning. The Flames did the bulk of their damage on the power play, scoring three times with the man advantage.
The Jets held a slight edge in scoring chances and high-danger chances at five-on-five. They had 18 more shot attempts at even strength, had 11 shots on net from the slot - compared to six for Calgary - and almost a full minute more of possession time in the offensive zone. But they didn't quite get the puck luck on Connor Hellebuyck's rare off night.
Not having Mark Scheifele or Patrik Laine is hardly ideal - though at least one of them could be back for this game - but the Jets have faced adversity all season are certainly aren't lacking in mental toughness. Winnipeg tends to come out swinging when backed into a corner, and Game 4 will be no different with this team facing elimination.
Alex Moretto is a sports betting writer for theScore. A journalism graduate from Guelph-Humber University, he has worked in sports media for over a decade. He will bet on anything from the Super Bowl to amateur soccer, is too impatient for futures, and will never trust a kicker. Find him on Twitter @alexjmoretto.
The NHL's best regular-season club will not be one of the Eastern Conference's top two seeds in the round of 16.
The Boston Bruins are unable to finish higher than No. 3 in the East following their 3-2 round-robin loss to the Tampa Bay Lightning on Wednesday.
"Well that part sucks, I'm not going to lie to you," Bruins head coach Bruce Cassidy told reporters, including The Athletic's Scott Wheeler, postgame. "We knew the rules going into it, that we would lose a bit of the advantage we'd gained. Would I have rather been the No. 1 seed? Absolutely."
Boston is now 0-2-0 in the round-robin stage after losing its opener to the Philadelphia Flyers by a 4-1 margin on Sunday.
The Lightning are 2-0-0 in round-robin play after defeating the Washington Capitals in a shootout Monday, while the Capitals are 0-0-1 and the Flyers are 1-0-0.
Philadelphia will hold the tiebreaker over Boston if both teams finish 1-2-0 by virtue of its win over the Bruins.
Boston was the only NHL team to manage a triple-digit point total in the regular-season standings, finishing with 100 in 70 games. The Lightning were second in the conference with 92 points in 70 contests. Washington finished third in the East with 90 points through 69 games and Philadelphia posted 89 points - also in 69 outings - to sit fourth.
NHL play-in action continued to heat up Tuesday with Carolina's 4-1 sweep-clinching win against the Rangers, Calgary's 6-2 blowout of Winnipeg, and Vancouver's 4-3 squeaker over Minnesota. Here's a rundown of three players whose influence was of the essence in these games.
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J.T. Miller, Canucks C
Kevin Fiala tried his mightiest to make things interesting late - seriously, the guy can flat out shoot; that's 17 goals in a 20-game stretch for the Wild winger dating back to early February - but Vancouver's all-hands-on-deck performance atoned for a Game 1 no-show and demonstrated that Alex Stalock is indeed beatable.
Brock Boeser and Bo Horvat each scored his first career postseason goal in Game 2, and whiz kids Quinn Hughes and Elias Pettersson both got on the scoresheet with breakthrough assists. All night, though, the Canucks took their cues from Miller, a 27-year-old sage on the young team he quietly topped in scoring (27 goals, 72 points) this season.
Advanced metrics and a purist's tastes alike confirm that Miller led the charge for Vancouver. He controlled the puck in the offensive zone for 1:31, 21 seconds more than any other skater, according to data provided by SPORTLOGIQ. That he, Pettersson, and Boeser combined to score twice at five-on-five was consistent with the line's hearty 65.2 expected-goals percentage.
That so many core Canucks had never before suited up in the NHL playoffs - Boeser, Horvat, Hughes, Pettersson, Troy Stecher, Jake Virtanen, even 30-year-old goalie Jacob Markstrom - threatened to be a hiccup even against the 10th-seeded but experienced Wild. Somehow, Miller's Game 2 snipe was only his fourth goal across 63 career playoff appearances. It stabilized Vancouver when needed, the mark of a star who's keen to last in the Edmonton bubble for longer than a week.
Sebastian Aho, Hurricanes C
Twice in Toronto on Tuesday, decisive sequences in the Hurricanes-Rangers game called for Aho to make a play. He delivered both times, first covertly and then overtly.
Viewers could be forgiven for missing the slick Finn's handiwork on the Hurricanes' first goal, the product of a 75-second shift in the Rangers' end. Toying with a tired group that included a stickless Marc Staal, Carolina held onto the puck while swapping out its fourth line for Aho's forward unit. The cycle finally concluded with Andrei Svechnikov feeding Teuvo Terevainen for a sweet backhand in the slot - assisted by Aho's timely stick lift on Phillip DiGiuseppe.
The interminable shift was peak 'Canes, the NHL's third-best Corsi team in the regular season; rarely are the merits of maintaining puck possession exhibited so clearly. Sweeping the Rangers with Dougie Hamilton out of the lineup was a team effort, and at this particular series-shaping juncture, Aho took care of the important little thing.
Mark Blinch / NHL / Getty Images
Carolina's third goal was Aho's entirely. If 'Canes goalie James Reimer could have taken a catnap prior to Terevainen's tally, this one emerged from nowhere when Aho stripped Jacob Trouba at the New York blue line and immediately crossed up Tony DeAngelo. By then, the backhand he flipped from his knees past Igor Shesterkin's shoulder and under the bar seemed inevitable. (Same goes for the empty-netter Aho added in the final minute.)
The effect of Aho's showing was to wrest unofficial player-of-the-game honors from Reimer, the surprise choice to make his first playoff start since 2013 in place of Petr Mrazek. Reimer's point-blank paddle save on Filip Chytil, the most spectacular of his 37 on the night, may remain the denial of the postseason when all is said and done in two months' time.
For now, Carolina advances to the round of 16 with two decent goaltending options - and the center who just outplayed every skater in the qualifiers not named Connor McDavid.
Andrew Mangiapane, Flames LW
Nearing the end of his first full NHL season, Mangiapane doesn't have the profile to match those of his fellow top-six Flames forwards. Johnny Gaudreau's niftier with the puck, while Matthew Tkachuk's way more adept at rankling the opposition. Sean Monahan, Mikael Backlund, and Elias Lindholm all have significantly greater track records of producing at the highest level.
Those five players each found twine in Game 3 against Connor Hellebuyck, as did Milan Lucic, who also had another goal disallowed due to goalie interference. The story of Calgary's authoritative victory was that of its big guns hammering the Jets for three power-play scores and a ton of chances at even strength. It was Mangiapane who played the role of unsung hero, operating doggedly and shrewdly in the margins to make some of those finishes easy.
Andy Devlin / NHL / Getty Images
Will and skill enabled the 24-year-old left winger to set up the Flames' two goals at five-on-five. On both occasions, Mangiapane applied forechecking pressure off dump-ins, repossessed a loose puck in or around the trapezoid, and fired a perceptive pass to the front of the net for Backlund and Tkachuk, in that order, to roof snapshots past Hellebuyck.
Without touching the puck, Mangiapane's positioning subtly keyed Calgary's final power-play goal. His presence in the slot attracted Neal Pionk and Cody Eakin's undivided attention, leaving Lucic open on the weak side to bury a rebound.
Twice a 100-point scorer in junior, Mangiapane's hands have benefited him in the NHL in concert with his energy and edge. By venturing to the grimy areas Tuesday while Backlund and Tkachuk slipped into scoring position, he helped the line carry 75% of scoring chances at five-on-five, proving his two primary assists were well earned.
The Jets still await a vintage Hellebuyck performance, which the Vezina Trophy finalist might yet unleash in Game 4 to push this best-of-five to the brink. Winger Nikolaj Ehlers scored and was generally a force in Game 3 - his five scoring chances tied Backlund for the game high - but without Mark Scheifele and Patrik Laine, Winnipeg's depleted top lines have simply been less effective than Calgary's. Surrounded by bigger names, Mangiapane's contributions to that imbalance have been noticeable.
