One of the most intriguing matchups of the play-in round pits the seventh-seeded Vancouver Canucks against the 10th-ranked Minnesota Wild.
The dynamic, upstart Canucks are the clear favorites, but the more battle-tested Wild have a couple of tricks up their sleeves that make them prime candidates to pull off an upset.
Minnesota hasn't gone far in the postseason recently, but the club qualified for the playoffs in six straight years before missing out in 2018-19. Conversely, Vancouver hasn't taken part in the postseason since it was bounced in the first round in 2014-15.
While the Canucks boast more firepower, the Wild's experience and a young game-breaker of their own could make this series more interesting than many are anticipating.
Schedule
| Game | Date | Time (ET) |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sun. Aug. 2 | 10:30 p.m. |
| 2 | Tues. Aug. 4 | 10:45 p.m. |
| 3 | Thu. Aug. 6 | TBD |
| 4* | Fri. Aug. 7 | TBD |
| 5* | Sun. Aug. 9 | TBD |
*If necessary
Tale of the tape
| Canucks | Stat | Wild |
|---|---|---|
| 36-27-6 | Record | 35-27-7 |
| 3.25 (8th) | Goals per game | 3.16 (12th) |
| 3.1 (21st) | Goals against | 3.14 (24th) |
| 24.2 (4th) | Power play % | 21.3 (11th) |
| 80.5 (16th) | Penalty kill % | 77.2 (25th) |
| 48.43 (23rd) | 5-on-5 Corsi For % | 49.6 (17th) |
| 8.6 (9th) | 5-on-5 SH% | 9.43 (2nd) |
| 91.9 (14th) | 5-on-5 SV% | 91.5 (20th) |
Season series
The Canucks took the first meeting between these clubs 4-1 on Jan. 12, but the Wild responded by winning both subsequent clashes, first by a 4-2 margin on Feb. 6 and then by a 4-3 count in a shootout less than two weeks later. Vancouver outshot Minnesota 87-59 (an average of 29-19.7) over those three games.
Key players to watch
Elias Pettersson
Pettersson is clearly the Canucks' most dangerous weapon. The 21-year-old has proven capable of taking over games at will, tying for the club lead with 27 goals and ranking second with 66 points in 68 contests this season. He improved in his second NHL campaign after winning the Calder Trophy with as many points in three more games in 2018-19.
The Swedish center can drive possession at an impressive clip, posting favorable expected goals for (54.75), scoring chances for (53.16), and Corsi For (54.34) percentages in 2019-20.
Kevin Fiala
After collecting nine goals and 28 points over the first 46 games of the season, Fiala exploded down the stretch, racking up 14 goals and 26 points across 18 contests before the league halted play. The 24-year-old finished atop the Wild's points rankings and trailed Zach Parise by only two markers for the club's goal-scoring lead despite playing fewer games than many of his teammates.
Fiala is now arguably Minnesota's best offensive player and certainly its best young forward suiting up against the Canucks. His performance will be critical for a Wild team that lacks a wealth of scoring punch.
Canucks can win if ...
Vancouver will advance if its young phenoms can rise to the challenge of heightened stakes and vanquish a team more accustomed to playoff-level competition. The Canucks were only one point better than the Wild through the abbreviated regular season, but they're the superior team and possess more skill than their play-in opponents.
They also need their elite power play to remain as effective as it was during the regular season, and goaltender Jacob Markstrom - who's been cleared to return - must pick up where he left off after an injury forced him out of action in late February.
Wild can win if ...
Minnesota can prevail if its defense manages to stifle the Canucks' young guns. The Wild were the league's best team in expected goals allowed during the regular season and ranked fourth in expected goals for percentage, so it's not completely out of the realm of possibility. Given Vancouver's potency with the man advantage, staying out of the penalty box should help accomplish that.
The Wild also need to resolve their goaltending situation. No. 1 netminder Devan Dubnyk had a difficult campaign and was ultimately displaced as the starter by perennial backup Alex Stalock. Minnesota must get reliable play in the crease from Dubnyk, Stalock, or, if necessary, rookie Kaapo Kahkonen if the team is to have a shot at defeating Vancouver.
X-factors
Tanner Pearson
The Wild will be focused on containing Pettersson, Brock Boeser, J.T. Miller, Tyler Toffoli, and Calder Trophy finalist Quinn Hughes. That could create space for Pearson to do some damage in this series.
Pearson was playing on Bo Horvat's left wing opposite Boeser before the pause, but the Canucks recently bumped him to the top line in practice. Regardless of how he's ultimately deployed, Pearson could be a difference-maker. He ranked fourth on the team with 21 goals in 2019-20, with only three of his markers coming on the power play.
Alex Galchenyuk
Galchenyuk was starting to find his game before the hiatus after the Wild acquired him from the Pittsburgh Penguins in the trade for Jason Zucker in early February.
Held off the scoresheet in his first three games with Minnesota, Galchenyuk collected three goals and seven points in his final 11 contests. As a third-liner, he won't command the attention that Fiala, Parise, and other Wild forwards will warrant. That could present the former Montreal Canadiens and Arizona Coyotes forward with a prime opportunity to make an impact.
(Analytics source: Natural Stat Trick)
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