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The Calgary Flames are desperate for a taste of playoff success after last season's disappointing first-round exit, but they face a tough draw against a Winnipeg Jets squad with mounds of playoff experience.
Can Connor Hellebuyck and the Jets go into Alberta and inflict more playoff misery on the Flames?
| TEAM | ODDS |
|---|---|
| Calgary Flames | -115 |
| Winnipeg Jets | -105 |
The case for Calgary
The Flames struggled to get out of first gear and were unable to build any energy after an early coaching change. Calgary's offense started to come to life before the pause, suggesting interim coach Geoff Ward found the right formula among his forwards. The Flames averaged 4.06 goals per game over their final 15 regular-season contests and Johnny Gaudreau broke out of his slump with 16 points over that stretch.
Calgary should expose Winnipeg, despite the Flames' offensive woes. The Jets’ run-and-gun style allowed the second-most high-danger scoring chances in the regular season while creating the fourth fewest. Winnipeg was also a miserable 29th in expected goal rates and 22nd in shot differential.
The Jets attempted to rebuild their defense on the fly and it simply hasn't worked. Calgary holds a significant edge on the blue line in this series. Mark Giordano is healthy after missing most of February and Noah Hanifin is making a welcome return to the lineup. That will be a big help for whomever the Flames pick to play goalie. Cam Talbot is enjoying a terrific bounce-back season and he's built a strong case to get the starting nod.
The case for Winnipeg
It's hard not to turn this into a "Connor Hellebuyck for Vezina" segment. The 27-year-old has enjoyed a spectacular season that should see him named top goaltender. Hellebuyck has posted an outrageous 22.37 goals saved above average, and he was second in save percentage among netminders who started at least half their team's games. He also faced 509 high-danger shots - by far the most in the NHL. Tuukka Rask, the only full-time starter with a better SV%, saw just 279.
Hellebuyck managed his strong stats behind a defense that was a mess for most of the year. Winnipeg had the fifth-most expected goals against this season but allowed the 12th fewest thanks to the netminder.
Hellebuyck should get more help from a defensive group that improved toward the end of the season. Deadline acquisition Dylan DeMelo has given a big push, while a healthy Sami Niku and Luca Sbisa should bolster the back end's strength. Winnipeg's forward group is loaded with high-end talent and shouldn't have any trouble providing goal support.
The pick
Winnipeg Jets (-105)
There was so little separating these teams in the regular season - just a .001 points percentage difference in favor of Calgary - and both Canadian clubs will be feeling the pressure to live up to expectations. Neither was particularly impressive in any offensive or defensive categories, but it's hard to back the Flames as the favorite with a significant disadvantage in goal. In a battle between a pair of evenly matched teams, go with the likely Vezina winner and a plethora of game-breaking talent up front.
(Odds source: theScore Bet)
Alex Moretto is a sports betting writer for theScore. A journalism graduate from Guelph-Humber University, he has worked in sports media for over a decade. He will bet on anything from the Super Bowl to amateur soccer, is too impatient for futures, and will never trust a kicker. Find him on Twitter @alexjmoretto.
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