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The play-in round will give the Nashville Predators a second lease on what was a disappointing season by their standards, but they'll face a hungry Arizona Coyotes squad with its sights on ending a seven-season playoff drought.
Will the Predators punch their ticket to the postseason for a seventh successive year, or will the Coyotes secure their first playoff berth since the franchise changed its name from Phoenix to Arizona?
| TEAM | ODDS |
|---|---|
| Nashville Predators | -135 |
| Arizona Coyotes | +115 |
The case for Nashville
The Predators know what this is all about. With a roster boasting mounds of playoff experience, they're no strangers to high-pressure situations. They didn't post great numbers offensively this season, but they are well and truly four lines deep. That makes them incredibly dangerous in postseason play. Leading the group is a legitimate game-breaker in Filip Forsberg, who can take over a series if he heats up.
Nashville also happens to own one of the NHL's top defensive pairings featuring Norris Trophy nominee Roman Josi and Ryan Ellis. Both are capable of logging heavy minutes and should be fresh following a lengthy layoff, meaning the Predators can lean heavily on their top unit in this series.
What really held Nashville back this season was goaltending. The Predators' underlying numbers suggest they were slightly above average defensively, yet they were on par with some of the NHL's worst defensive teams in terms of goals allowed. That's because Pekka Rinne was, to put it mildly, abysmal. The 37-year-old saw his play fall off a cliff in 2019-20, posting a 3.17 goals-against average and .895 save percentage in 40 starts - easily the worst marks of his career.
Juuse Saros took over as the starter in early February, and it's no coincidence Nashville's play drastically improved around that time. The Predators were 10-4-0 in his starts from February on, with the 25-year-old posting an outrageous .940 save percentage over that stretch. He should be the unquestioned starter heading into this series. With their goaltending issues finally behind them, the Predators can focus on making another deep playoff run.
The case for Arizona
Throw the standings out the window. The Coyotes were four points back of Nashville for the Western Conference's final playoff spot when the league suspended the season, but they were 20-12-4 when Darcy Kuemper got hurt in December. That's a 100-point pace over the course of a standard 82-game campaign. Because he plays in Arizona for a team that consistently flies under the league-wide radar, you probably didn't realize just how great a season Kuemper was having.
The native of Saskatchewan was third in the NHL in both save percentage (.928) and goals-against average (2.22) this season and would have been a lock for a Vezina Trophy nomination if he hadn't suffered an injury. He returned to play following a two-month absence and posted a .924 save percentage and 2.55 goals-against average in four games, so there's no evidence to suggest he'll be negatively impacted by the NHL's hiatus. On the off chance he does falter, Antti Raanta is one of the league's best backups.
Both Coyotes netminders will be supported by an extremely strong defensive corps. Jakob Chychrun is an absolute stud, emerging as the 22-year-old leader of a group that includes the dynamic Oliver Ekman-Larsson, as well as sturdy veterans Alex Goligoski, Niklas Hjalmarsson, and Jason Demers (with the latter two now healthy following the break). Only the Dallas Stars and Boston Bruins allowed fewer goals than Arizona this season, a testament not just to the Coyotes' goaltending, but to the defensive strength of their roster - especially in Kuemper's absence.
We know the Coyotes can keep goals out, but can they score? They had the league's fifth-worst shooting percentage this season, which suggests they were victims of some bad luck. They need more out of their top forwards, but Taylor Hall is playing for a new contract this summer and Phil Kessel has a history of elevating his game in the postseason. Improved play from those two - and some better puck luck - could help Arizona make some serious noise in the playoffs.
The pick
Arizona Coyotes (+115)
Comb through all the numbers you want; the fact is, these teams are very similar. The difference? Arizona holds a significant edge between the pipes, behind the bench - Coyotes head coach Rick Tocchet is criminally underrated - and on special teams. Nashville's power play (25th in the NHL) and penalty kill (29th) were disastrous this season, while the Coyotes boasted a top-five penalty kill and a middle-of-the-road power play. Those are three massive advantages for Arizona, which is one of my favorite bets of the play-in round at +115.
(Odds source: theScore Bet)
Alex Moretto is a sports betting writer for theScore. A journalism graduate from Guelph-Humber University, he has worked in sports media for over a decade. He will bet on anything from the Super Bowl to amateur soccer, is too impatient for futures, and will never trust a kicker. Find him on Twitter @alexjmoretto.
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