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Before the NHL season began, we produced a pair of articles outlining what we felt were the best point total bets to make for the upcoming campaign.
Let's look back on those - three overvalued teams to fade and four undervalued teams to consider - and see how we did.
The good
Toronto Maple Leafs under 102.5
This one was never in doubt. The Maple Leafs slumped out of the gate under Mike Babcock and a midseason coaching change couldn't spark them. Questions about their depth and defense proved legitimate, as did pointing out that the team hadn't actually improved over the offseason. Barring an 11-0-1 finish, this was an easy under.
Washington Capitals over 97.5
"It would be shocking to see this team finish below 100 points."
The Capitals were at 90 points, meaning they needed just five wins from their remaining 13 games to hit triple-digits. They would have sailed over 100, let alone 97.5. Whoever set this total should give me their address so I can send a gift basket.
New Jersey Devils under 90.5
Everybody and their mother got on the Devils' bandwagon following a busy offseason, but I never quite could understand the hype. I doubted whether P.K. Subban and Wayne Simmonds would actually help this team much - they didn't - and cited Taylor Hall's expiring contract and Mackenzie Blackwood's resume in net as legitimate concerns. I wasn't wrong. Hall was shipped out after a miserable start and the Devils were on pace for a meager 80 points.
The bad
Anaheim Ducks over 81.5
This one was a bit unlucky. Injuries were a big issue for the Ducks, who used 36 different skaters through 71 games. The logic behind this pick made sense, though, and I stand by it: "(The Ducks were) a complete and utter disaster last season and finished with 80 points. ... They can't possibly be any worse this season." With enough injuries to key guys, it turned out they could be.
Chicago Blackhawks over 89.5
This was the worst call of them all. I really bought into the Dylan Strome and Alex DeBrincat duo up front, but it backfired in a colossal way. Neither came close to reaching their 2018-19 numbers. I also raved about adding Olli Maatta and Calvin de Haan to the Blackhawks' defense. Well, Maatta's been average at best and De Haan's been limited to 29 games. It's a blessing this future will be voided.
Minnesota Wild under 87.5
This one looked great until about a month ago. General manager Bill Guerin called the players out publicly and they answered the bell. The Wild won eight of 11 games before the season was suspended, putting them on pace to surpass this total after it looked like a pipe dream at the start of February.
The most frustrating part of this one is that I was right about Devan Dubnyk "turning back into the pumpkin he was in Edmonton"; what I didn't account for was Alex Stalock stepping in and picking up the slack.
Alex Moretto is a sports betting writer for theScore. A journalism graduate from Guelph-Humber University, he has worked in sports media for over a decade. He will bet on anything from the Super Bowl to amateur soccer, is too impatient for futures, and will never trust a kicker. Find him on Twitter @alexjmoretto.
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