Projecting Mikko Rantanen’s next contract

Throughout June, theScore will be projecting contracts for the star-studded restricted free-agent class. In this edition, we project Mikko Rantanen's new deal.

The player

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Rantanen has developed into one of the game's premier wingers after being selected 10th overall by the Colorado Avalanche in the stacked 2015 NHL Draft.

Season (Age) GP G A P ATOI
2015-16 (19) 9 0 0 0 8:57
2016-17 (20) 75 20 18 38 18:03
2017-18 (21) 81 29 55 84 18:58
2018-19 (22) 74 31 56 87 20:51

Rantanen is a big-bodied playmaking winger and efficient goal-scorer. He's yet to surpass the 200-shot mark in a season but has a career shooting percentage of 15.6, signaling some untapped scoring potential.

The Finn has developed great chemistry with Nathan MacKinnon and Gabriel Landeskog to form one of the NHL's most lethal lines. However, he's not simply a beneficiary of his surroundings. In the 122 five-on-five minutes Rantanen took the ice without MacKinnon and Landeskog, the Avs scored 83.3 percent of the goals and generated 55.7 percent of the high-danger scoring chances against their opponents.

The team

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The Avalanche might have the best long-term outlook of any organization in the league. They have premier players on team-friendly deals, young talent coming through the system, no terrible contracts, and ample draft-pick capital.

General manager Joe Sakic has a projected $37 million in cap space to work with. Fellow RFA forwards Alexander Kerfoot and J.T. Compher also need new contracts, but Rantanen should clearly be the top priority.

Given the financial flexibility and Rantanen's status as a core player, an eight-year contract would make sense for both sides. A max-term deal would require a greater cap hit, but the Avs have more than enough available space to make it work.

The comparables

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Here's a select list of wingers who signed contracts out of restricted free agency in the last few years:

Player Cap hit CH% Length Year signed
William Nylander (TOR) $6.9M* 8.67 6 years 2018
Nikita Kucherov (TB) $9.5M 11.95 8 years 2018
Leon Draisaitl (EDM) $8.5M 11.3 8 years 2017
David Pastrnak (BOS) $6.6M 8.89 6 years 2017
Johnny Gaudreau (CGY) $6.75M 9.25 6 years 2016
Vladimir Tarasenko (STL) $7.5M 10.27 8 years 2015

CH% = Cap hit percentage, based on cap ceiling when the contract was signed

* - Nylander's cap hit in 2018-19 was prorated to $10.2 million because of time missed in negotiations

Draisaitl is listed among the comparable players despite splitting his time between center and wing throughout his career. He tallied 77 points in his contract year, but his deal now looks like a bargain after a 105-point campaign in 2018-19.

The Tampa Bay Lightning got a bargain with Kucherov, the likely Hart Trophy winner. Florida has no state income tax, so Bolts players receive a higher percentage of their salary than someone who plays, for example, in Colorado, which has a 4.63 percent income tax rate. This allows teams like the Lightning to sign their players to a lower cap hit, so it wouldn't be shocking if Rantanen's deal exceeds Kucherov's.

The projection

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Rantanen's contract could largely depend on when he signs. If fellow RFA wingers Mitch Marner or Matthew Tkachuk sign first, it'll offer the best comparable for Rantanen's camp to look at in negotiations.

At the very minimum, Rantanen's cap hit will start with a nine if he signs an eight-year deal. It's also quite possible that annual figure enters double digits.

Verdict: 8 years, $80 million ($10 million AAV, 12.05 CH%)

(Advanced stats courtesy: Natural Stat Trick)

Others in this series:

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Bruins’ Cassidy calls officiating during playoffs ‘a black eye’ for NHL

Boston Bruins head coach Bruce Cassidy vented his frustration after another controversial non-call took the spotlight during his team's Game 5 loss to the St. Louis Blues in the Stanley Cup Final.

"I’m a fan of the game," Cassidy said, according to ESPN's Greg Wyshynski. "It’s the National Hockey League getting a black eye with their officiating in these playoffs, and there’s another one that’s going to be talked about."

With less than 10 minutes to play in the third period and St. Louis holding a 1-0 advantage, Tyler Bozak seemingly tripped Bruins forward Noel Acciari in Boston's zone. The play allowed David Perron to pick up the puck and beat netminder Tuukka Rask with a bank shot.

"The no-call on Acciari ... their player is on his way to the box," Cassidy said. "It's right in front of the official. It's a slew foot. Our guy's gone. The spotter took him out of the game for a possible concussion. I mean, it's blatant. It had a big effect on the game."

The Bruins bench boss also wasn't happy with a couple of hits that he perceived to be illegal checks to the head.

"Those are the hits they want to get out of the game, correct? That's what I hear a lot about," he said. "Clearly, they missed a couple tonight. It's a fast game. I sat here two days ago or whatever it was and said I believe these officials are at this level because they've earned the right to be here."

Cassidy believes the series took a turn when Blues head coach Craig Berube complained about the officiating after Game 3.

"I mean, the narrative changed after Game 3. There's a complaint or whatever put forth by the opposition. It just seems to have changed everything," he said.

Officials have been held under a microscope all postseason after multiple botched calls.

In Game 7 of the opening-round series between the San Jose Sharks and Vegas Golden Knights, a questionable five-minute major allowed the Sharks to erase a 3-0 deficit and win the game in overtime. The Blues found themselves on the opposite side of a controversial play in Western Conference Final when the Sharks scored the overtime winner in Game 3 courtesy of a hand pass.

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Binnington ties rookie record with 15th playoff win

With a 2-1 victory in Game 5 of the Stanley Cup Final on Thursday, St. Louis Blues goaltender Jordan Binnington tied the NHL record for wins by a rookie in one playoff year.

Binnington's 15th win matched the previous totals of Cam Ward, Ron Hextall, Patrick Roy, and Matt Murray. Ward, Hextall, and Roy all went on to win the Conn Smythe Trophy.

The 24-year-old has been stellar since posting a shutout in his first career start on Jan. 7. He led all qualified starters with a 1.89 GAA in the regular season and has backstopped the Blues to within one win of the Stanley Cup.

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Watch: Perron scores Game 5 winner after controversial non-call

The St. Louis Blues may have gotten away with one in Game 5 of the Stanley Cup Final.

With under 10 minutes to play in the third period and St. Louis holding a 1-0 lead, Tyler Bozak seemed to trip Bruins forward Noel Acciari in the Boston zone. The play allowed David Perron to pick up the loose puck and beat netminder Tuukka Rask off an awkward bank shot.

The Blues found themselves on the opposite side of a controversial play in Western Conference Final when the San Jose Sharks scored the overtime winner in Game 3 after a hand pass led directly to the winning goal.

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Chara in Bruins’ lineup for Game 5

Boston Bruins captain Zdeno Chara was medically cleared to play in Game 5 of the Stanley Cup Final on Thursday after suffering a jaw injury in Game 4, according to head coach Bruce Cassidy.

Defenseman Matt Grzelcyk, however, will miss his third straight contest with a concussion.

Boston opted to go with seven defensemen and only 11 forwards, with David Backes drawing out of the lineup.

Chara ranks fourth on the team in ice time, averaging 21:56 per contest this postseason. The 21-year veteran leads the Bruins with 179 games of playoff experience.

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Stars sign Janmark to 1-year, $2.3M extension

The Dallas Stars signed forward Mattias Janmark to a one-year contract extension worth $2.3 million, the team announced Thursday.

Janmark notched 25 points in 81 regular-season games for Dallas in 2018-19. He added another three points during seven playoff games.

The 26-year-old Swede was originally drafted in the third round (79th overall) by the Detroit Red Wings in 2013.

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Hughes expects to be linked with Kakko ‘for a long time’

Jack Hughes understands that he and Kaapo Kakko will likely be seeing a lot more of one another once their NHL careers begin.

"I think it'll be really competitive for a lot of years," the presumptive first overall pick told the assembled media, including TSN, before Game 4 of the Stanley Cup Final in St. Louis on Monday.

Hughes has long been expected to be selected by the New Jersey Devils at the draft later this month. He was the top-ranked North American skater in NHL Central Scouting's final rankings.

Kakko, who was Central Scouting's No. 1-ranked international skater at season's end, is expected to be chosen second by the New York Rangers, although neither pick is a certainty.

"Whether it's the Devils or the Rangers, we're going to be linked to each other for a long time with us going to places so close to each other and maybe a little bit of a rivalry between the Devils and Rangers, so I think it'll be a lot of fun for years to come," Hughes said.

The Devils and Rangers both play in the Metropolitan Division. The 2019-20 schedule hasn't yet been released, but the clubs will face off either four or five times during the regular season.

Hughes and Kakko have already battled on the international stage with the United States and Finland, respectively.

Kakko scored the late winner to defeat Hughes and the U.S. for the gold medal at the World Junior Hockey Championship last winter. He also outperformed Hughes at the World Championship in May, leading Finland to gold in that tournament with six goals and seven points in 10 games.

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