The Stanley Cup isn't won on paper, but the Boston Bruins have been better than the St. Louis Blues statistically in this postseason.
Boston has been superior at both scoring and preventing goals, and the Bruins also possess the edge on both sides of the special teams battle. However, the Blues have been better at suppressing opposing shots.
Here's how the two teams are faring in the key conventional categories this spring:
| Category | Blues | Bruins |
|---|---|---|
| Games Played | 19 | 17 |
| Goals For Per Game | 3 | 3.35 |
| Goals Against Per Game | 2.53 | 1.94 |
| Power Play % | 19.4 | 34 |
| Penalty Kill % | 78 | 86.3 |
| Faceoff Win % | 49.4 | 53.3 |
| Shots For Per Game | 30.9 | 33.6 |
| Shots Against Per Game | 28.4 | 32.4 |
| Overtime Record | 1-2 | 1-1 |
| Team Goals Leader | Jaden Schwartz (12) | Patrice Bergeron (8) |
| Team Points Leader | Jaden Schwartz (16) | Brad Marchand (18) |
The Bruins boast the most efficient power play among all postseason clubs this year.
Boston also mostly holds the five-on-five possession advantage this spring:
| Category | Blues | Bruins |
|---|---|---|
| Corsi For % | 50.86 | 50.74 |
| Scoring Chances For % | 49.94 | 50.88 |
| High-Danger Chances For % | 46.69 | 53.57 |
| Expected Goals For % | 49.52 | 51.73 |
St. Louis' slight edge in the Corsi department isn't encouraging for the Blues because the Bruins have been better at generating scoring chances, both in general and of the high-danger variety. Boston is also posting a stronger expected goals rate.
Elsewhere, the goaltending matchup should be one of the biggest storylines in the series.
Bruins netminder Tuukka Rask is producing one of the best postseason save percentages since the NHL began tracking the statistic in 1955-56.
Tuukka Rask of the @NHLBruins owns a .942 SV% entering the #StanleyCup Final, better than his total in the 2013 postseason which was tied for the 5th-highest SV% in a playoff year (min. 15 GP).
— NHL Public Relations (@PR_NHL) May 26, 2019
More #NHLStats: https://t.co/2idb3mWPiF pic.twitter.com/6w9uUYy5Cd
Rask can also become the first Finnish goalie and fifth Finnish player to win the Stanley Cup multiple times.
Meanwhile, Jordan Binnington's 12 wins coming into the series are the most ever by a Blues netminder in a single postseason. He's one of only seven rookie goalies in NHL history to post 12-plus wins during a playoff run.
But the Bruins still hold the clear edge in goal, and a deeper dive into the analytics shows how significant the gap has been this spring.
| Category | Binnington | Rask |
|---|---|---|
| Goals Saved Above Average | 1.02 | 7.66 |
| High-Danger Goals Saved Above Average | -2.61 | 6.13 |
| High-Danger Save Percentage | .824 | .918 |
Rask leads the league in GSAA by a wide margin during the playoffs, and he's also posted the best HDGSAA among all postseason goaltenders this year.
High-danger save percentage: Percentage of high-danger shots against that were saves.
Goals saved above average: The difference between the goalie's Goals Against and a Goals Against with the same Shots Against and the average save percentage.
High-danger goals saved above average: The difference between the goalie's high-danger Goals Against and a high-danger Goals Against with the same high-danger Shots Against and the average high-danger save percentage
(Analytics courtesy: Natural Stat Trick)
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