Kyle Dubas is in for a busy first offseason as Toronto Maple Leafs general manager, but his job may be simplified if 22-year-old William Nylander is ready to play center on a full-time basis.
Nylander was drafted as a center but has spent the first chapter of his NHL career playing right wing - usually alongside Auston Matthews. Nylander played center occasionally last season when Matthews was injured, and statistically, yielded some generally positive results, albeit in a small sample.
| Stat | RW | C |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 71 | 11 |
| Goals/G | 0.24 | 0.18 |
| Assists/G | 0.49 | 0.55 |
| Points/G | 0.75 | 0.73 |
| Shots/G | 2.04 | 1.55 |
| CF% | 50.2% | 50.0% |
| SCF% | 52.6% | 59.4% |
| HDCF% | 49.6% | 61.5% |
| FO% | 52.6% | 46.5% |
CF% = Percentage of shot attempts Toronto generated while Nylander was on the ice at five-on-five
SCF% = Percentage of scoring chances Toronto generated while Nylander was on the ice at five-on-five
HDCF% = Percentage of high-danger scoring chances Toronto generated while Nylander was on the ice at five-on-five
With Tyler Bozak, Tomas Plekanec, and Dominic Moore departing as unrestricted free agents, Miro Aaltonen bolting for the KHL, and no one truly ready for a promotion from the Calder Cup-winning Toronto Marlies, the Maple Leafs have significant holes down the middle. Moving Nylander to center full time plugs one of them.
In fact, even taking James van Riemsdyk's and Leo Komarov's departures as free agents into account, Toronto could theoretically roll out four adequate lines without making a single offseason acquisition up front, thanks to its outstanding organizational depth on the wings.
| LW | C | RW |
|---|---|---|
| Zach Hyman | Auston Matthews | Kasperi Kapanen |
| Patrick Marleau | Nazem Kadri | Mitch Marner |
| Andreas Johnsson | William Nylander | Connor Brown |
| Carl Grundstrom | Frederik Gauthier | Josh Leivo |
While the above lineup isn't set in stone, deploying Nylander down the middle means Toronto can use its cap space to sign a fourth-line center (Gauthier isn't the answer long term) and improve its defense.
However, this is all moot if Nylander isn't capable of playing center effectively next season.
'All kinds of adjustments'
If there's anyone who knows the challenges of switching from wing to center, it's former NHLer Alex Tanguay. He played center in junior with the Halifax Mooseheads, moved to the wing when he joined the Colorado Avalanche, but shifted back to the middle occasionally in his early days when Joe Sakic or Peter Forsberg was injured.
"It’s much more difficult to play center because there’s a timing. Wing, when the puck transitions, you go. At center, there’s a timing to go. So there’s all kinds of adjustments," Tanguay, who's currently an analyst for NHL Network, told theScore. "It is harder to play defense. There’s more responsibility defensively. I think that offensively, once you find your rhythm and your space, I think that center will give you more opportunities to get to more pucks, and more freedom maybe in that sense."
Though Tanguay humbly wouldn't draw comparisons between him and Nylander, there are some striking similarities. Neither player was extremely physical but both were highly skilled natural centers-turned-wingers with comparable builds. They even put up eerily similar numbers during their first two full NHL seasons:
| Stat | Tanguay | Nylander |
|---|---|---|
| GP | 158 | 163 |
| G | 44 | 42 |
| A | 84 | 80 |
| P | 128 | 122 |
"Obviously for me, I wasn’t an overly physical player. By physical I mean it was hard for me to defend. Some of those centermen are very strong on the puck, so for me, it was always a battle," Tanguay said. "I think it’s sort of similar for William. He’s got some of those attributes offensively that are gifts. You look at the skill that he possesses with the puck, the ability to be elusive, the ability to shoot, but defensively when I look at him, he’s still a young man that’s growing into the game that’s trying to learn the positioning, and I’m not sure that it’s a fit at center.
"Mike Babcock has sometimes (been) criticized about how and what he does with young players, but what he’s been asking of William Nylander is that consistency to compete. That’s something I had to go through in my career, where you have to make sure you get the puck, you have to make sure you’re responsible defensively, you have to make sure that you win your one-on-one battle."
Given Nylander's strong skating, slick hands, good vision, and ability to carry the puck smoothly from zone to zone, offense isn't an issue, but it's the defensive side of the puck that raises questions as to whether he can play center.
Most Maple Leafs fans have only been privy to Nylander's talent since he was called up at the tail end of the 2015-16 season, but Justin Bourne, a senior NHL columnist with The Athletic, saw the Swede hone his skills as an AHL center during his two-year stint as Marlies video coach.
"You can really get exposed if you’re not on your game in terms of energy and being engaged (while playing center)," Bourne told theScore. "(Nylander has) struggled with finding that, but that’s not uncommon with young players - and I think maybe we saw that with Nazem Kadri at one point, but Babcock eventually got through to him, so it'll be interesting to see if he ever gets through to Nylander, too."
Kadri, like Nylander, was a top-10 pick (seventh overall in 2009) but it took him until his age-26 season (Babcock's second in Toronto) to hit his stride.
"It’s going to be interesting to see because I think a lot of the reason that Kadri ended up becoming such a valuable centerman and so good at his role, is he grew up," said Bourne, who reached as high as the AHL level in his playing career. "He stopped partying as much, got married, he became a little bit more serious. Not that Nylander parties - that’s not it at all. It will be interesting to see if he matures the same way Naz did."
If Nylander can show significant signs of maturity and growth, it's difficult not to be excited by the impact he could have down the middle.
"It can be frustrating as a coach because when he's on - when he's engaged, he's present, and he cares - he can take over hockey games," Bourne said. "You get frustrated because, well, why don’t we see this every night? He just needs to become more consistent so he can be the best version of himself night in and night out. If he ever gets there, you’re talking about one of the best players in the league."
Sink or swim?
Banking on Nylander to find that consistency next season is a dicey proposition. If Toronto doesn't add another competent center and Babcock loses trust in Nylander during the season, Dubas will have to find someone to play down the middle before another expected playoff run.
"I think I’d be at least willing to experiment and you hope for the best of what you’re able to get this offseason," Bourne said. "I think if you’re able to make a trade for a good center, then maybe you keep him at wing. If you go into the year and you haven’t really found a solution to the problem, I think at the very least you gotta run him out there and just see what he can do. Let him make the decision for you. If he can do it, you can keep him there, if he can’t, then, well, back to the wing he goes."
If the Maple Leafs are unable to woo John Tavares, acquiring a pivot could prove difficult, and they'd likely have to overpay for any free-agent center. That's not ideal considering the cap crunch Toronto could find itself in come next offseason.
It's also tough to make a deal for a center on the trade market since the position is perpetually in demand. Dubas would almost certainly have to give up more than he should at the moment.
An effective Nylander manning center would be the most convenient option, then. But if he isn't ready to play the middle next season, will he ever be?
Bourne and Tanguay agreed that continuously jostling Nylander from position to position is not conducive to success. Unprompted, both brought up the Montreal Canadiens' utilization of the now-traded Alex Galchenyuk.
"If they’re gonna try (Nylander at center) this year, you have to give him a time frame to do it because obviously, it takes time, it takes adjustment. You have to make a decision. You look at the case of Galchenyuk in Montreal," Tanguay said prior to Galchenyuk's trade to the Arizona Coyotes. "(They’ve) been trying for the last four or five years to get him to play center, and give him different opportunities, and it seems like defensively he’s still having a hard time grasping a hold of the center-ice position."
Galchenyuk's shown flashes of promise over his first six NHL seasons but has never truly lived up to the expectations that come with being drafted third overall. It's hard not to believe that his constant positional switches have something to do with that.
"After two, three seasons ... I think there’s gotta be a cutoff," Bourne said, also prior to the trade. "I don’t like the way Montreal is dealing with Galchenyuk, in terms of, 'Well maybe one day he’ll be a center.' I think you know pretty quick. I think (the Leafs) need to be honest with themselves if it doesn’t work for them this season."
There's no doubt Nylander is a supremely gifted offensive NHLer. He's collected 61 points in each of his first two full seasons playing right wing. Still, his value will only skyrocket if he can become a productive center, one who's able to grasp the defensive element of the position, even if it comes at the expense of some offense. Given that Nylander, currently a restricted free agent, is going to be signed (likely long term) at winger's pay, Toronto has the potential to come out of this situation sitting pretty.
Centers are treasured in the NHL. Every club wants them, and no team has enough of them. Toronto's decision of what to do with Nylander is a massive one and will have a ripple effect throughout the organization.
Toronto's chosen to build around two home-grown centers: 20-year-old wunderkind Matthews and 27-year-old Kadri. Nylander, remember, is still just 22.
Bottom line: The Maple Leafs believe they have a window in which to win a Stanley Cup and could pry it further open if Nylander can successfully transition to a center.
No pressure.
(Advanced stats courtesy: Natural Stat Trick)
(Photos courtesy: Getty Images)
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