Down 3-1 in Stanley Cup Final, history’s not on Golden Knights’ side

After taking a 1-0 series lead, the Vegas Golden Knights have dropped three straight games and are now a single loss away from watching the Washington Capitals claim their first-ever Stanley Cup.

The Golden Knights are now the 34th team in NHL history to fall behind 3-1 in the Cup Final, and in the 33 previous instances, only once has a team come back to win it all.

The lone time being in 1942 when the Toronto Maple Leafs overcame a 3-0 series deficit against the Detroit Red Wings, winning four straight to capture their fourth Stanley Cup in franchise history.

If there is any reason for the Golden Knights to be optimistic, it is Washington's record when leading a series 3-1, where they are just 7-5. To put that into perspective, the rest of the NHL have a combined record of 269-23 in those instances.

The Golden Knights' daunting task of prolonging the series starts when they return home for Game 5 on Wednesday.

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Golden Knights deserved to lose despite favorable advanced metrics

The Vegas Golden Knights' performance in Game 4 of the Stanley Cup Final was proof that Corsi - and other advanced metrics - mean nothing in a one-game sample size.

The Golden Knights generated 65.4 percent of the game's shot attempts at even strength (Corsi For percentage), but lost 6-2. They also outchanced the Capitals 23-14, and had 12 high-danger scoring chances compared to Washington's five.

So, what went wrong?

For starter's, their defensive zone coverage was abysmal. Six goals against would lead one to believe that Marc-Andre Fleury was the problem, but for the most part, he was hung out to dry. Capitals players were routinely left wide-open in the offensive zone, which is why they were able to capitalize on their chances.

They also lost the special teams battle, which isn't factored into most advanced metrics, since the majority are calculated at even strength. The Capitals went 3-for-5 on the power play - partly due to some of the aforementioned defensive-zone lapses - while Vegas was 0-for-4 with the man advantage.

Moreover, in the third period, when the Capitals were supposed to be weathering a 20-minute storm while preserving the lead, the Golden Knights failed to apply the pressure, generating just four even-strength shots on goal in the final frame.

Here is what makes a stat like Corsi flawed: While shot attempts are a good way to indicate offensive-zone puck possession, it means nothing unless those shot attempts are actually getting through. They had 71 shot attempts in the game, but only 30 on goal.

Corsi and other advanced metrics are great over a full season, where trends can be predicted, and puck luck tends to even out, but in playoff hockey, that all goes out the window. The victory formula in the postseason is about doing the little things right, taking advantage of the chances you do get, and winning the goaltending battle. The Capitals did all of these in Game 4, and are one win away from the Stanley Cup as a result.

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Golden Knights’ Miller broke his nose on Oshie hit

Colin Miller had good reason to be upset after Michal Kempny's third-period goal gave the Washington Capitals a 5-2 lead on Monday.

Capitals forward T.J. Oshie rocked the Vegas Golden Knights defender with a hit that broke his nose, head coach Gerard Gallant revealed at his postgame press conference, according to Stephen Whyno of The Associated Press.

The lone good news for Vegas is that Miller didn't miss any playing time after the hit, needing just a couple plugs to help stop the bleeding.

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Capitals within a win of Stanley Cup after victory in Game 4

WASHINGTON (AP) The Washington Capitals are one win away from the first championship in their 43-year history after routing the Vegas Golden Knights 6-2 on Monday night to take a commanding 3-1 lead in the Stanley Cup Final.

T.J. Oshie, Tom Wilson and Devante Smith-Pelly all scored in the first period to get the Capitals rolling against a determined Vegas team that had no answers early against Braden Holtby, who stopped 28 shots in another strong showing. The desperate Golden Knights outchanced the Capitals by a wide margin but fell apart after James Neal clanked a shot off the post instead of hitting a wide-open net early, and the expansion team's Cinderella run could be over in a matter of days.

Evgeny Kuznetsov dished out four assists and John Carlson, Michal Kempny and Brett Connolly also scored as thunderous chants of ''We want the Cup! We want the Cup!'' rang out from the crowd.

Alex Ovechkin and the Capitals will get their first chance to hoist the Cup in Game 5 on Thursday night back in Las Vegas. No team since the Detroit Red Wings in 1942 has blown a 3-1 lead in the Cup Final.

The Capitals seem to be getting enough bounces to make up for nine previous first- or second-round playoff exits in the Ovechkin and Nicklas Backstrom era - and plenty more disappointments in the previous decades, too.

While Vegas rang several shots off the posts, the Capitals seized just about every opportunity as they have throughout this surprising run. Kuznetsov padded his lead as the playoffs' leading scorer with primary assists on Oshie's power-play goal that made it 1-0 and Wilson's that doubled the lead.

Smith-Pelly, who scored the insurance goal to ice Game 3, kicked the puck from his left skate to his stick and roofed a shot on Marc-Andre Fleury with 20.5 seconds left in the first period. Fleury came into the final as the Conn Smythe front-runner for playoff MVP honors but looked human again by allowing six goals on 23 shots at a defense that has often left him vulnerable.

Kuznetsov leads all playoff scorers with 31 points, Ovechkin is tied for the goal lead with 14 and Holtby showed again Monday his ability to alter the course of a game.

Holtby got some good fortune from the post on shots by Alex Tuch, Neal and Brayden McNabb. But he also made a handful of big saves early when the Golden Knights came out with a furious approach.

By the time Vegas got third-period goals from Neal and Reilly Smith it was too late.

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Kuznetsov becomes 5th player to hit 30 playoff points in over 20 years

Washington Capitals forward Evgeny Kuznetsov joined an elite group thanks to his third three-plus-point effort of the playoffs Monday night.

The 26-year-old's third assist of Game 4 of the Stanley Cup Final gave him 30 points this postseason, making him just the fifth player to hit that mark in the last 21 years.

Kuznetsov now has a four-point cushion over teammate Alex Ovechkin for the top spot in the playoff scoring race. He's also jumped into 10th place on the Capitals' career playoff scoring list.

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Capitals explode for 3 goals in opening period of Game 4

The Washington Capitals came out firing in Game 4 of the Stanley Cup Final.

In a crucial contest that can either give the Capitals a 3-1 series lead or allow the Golden Knights to even the series heading back to Vegas, Washington made a statement by scoring three times in the first 20 minutes.

T.J. Oshie opened the scoring midway through the first period, before Evgeny Kuznetsov gave Tom Wilson a perfect feed for the second goal roughly six minutes later. And just when the Golden Knights thought they could escape the frame down only two, Devante Smith-Pelly buried a beautiful dish from Alex Ovechkin with just 21 seconds remaining.

Making matters worse for the Golden Knights was that James Neal had missed a wide-open net earlier in the period that would have given them a 1-0 lead.

While a three-goal advantage is far from safe with 40 minutes to play, the Caps are in the driver's seat heading into the second period.

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Golden Knights’ Perron scratched for Game 4

Vegas Golden Knights forward David Perron is scratched for Game 4 of the Stanley Cup Final against the Washington Capitals, according to Sportsnet's Elliotte Friedman.

As announced earlier on Monday, Tomas Tatar will be inserted into the lineup in his place.

Perron, who didn't take part in pregame warmup, had a career-high 66 points in 70 regular-season contests this year, but has failed to find the back of the net in 14 playoff games, compiling eight assists.

The 30-year-old is scheduled to be an unrestricted free agent on July 1.

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NHL ref Garrett Rank qualifies for U.S. Open

While the Stanley Cup Final may be in full swing, NHL referee Garrett Rank has another tournament on his mind.

The 30-year-old qualified for the U.S. Open golf tournament at Shinneock Hills after tying for first place in a qualifying event at Ansley Golf Club in Rosewell, Ga., on Monday.

"Was next to the best players in the world on the ice ... next week I get to play with the best golfers in the world," Rank told theScore contributor Adam Stanley. "It's a pretty cool life I'm living right now."

Rank, who became a full-time ref in 2014, shot 2-under over 36 holes at one of the 12 regional qualifying tournaments on Monday.

The U.S. Open gets underway on June 14.

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