The Columbus Blue Jackets are right in the hunt in a ridiculously crowded Metropolitan Division - but they aren't making things easy on themselves.
The Blue Jackets are an impressive 13-7-1 a quarter of the way into the season despite boasting the NHL's worst power play. Their performance with the man advantage hasn't just been bad - it's been next-level terrible, producing just six goals in 58 opportunities after misfiring on their only man advantage in Monday's 3-2 win over the Buffalo Sabres.
The Blue Jackets have gotten away with having a terrible power-play unit through 21 games - but is their success sustainable if they can't fix their woes with the man advantage? Recent history suggests that making the playoffs - never mind being a top-three team in the conference - is a tall task without some semblance of a power play.
Here's a quick look at the bottom-five teams in terms of power-play efficiency over the previous five seasons, along with their end-of-year record and whether they made the postseason:
2016-17 season
| TEAM | PP RANK | RECORD | PLAYOFFS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona | 26th | 30-42-10 | No |
| Detroit | 27th | 33-36-13 | No |
| N.Y. Islanders | 28th | 41-29-12 | No |
| Vancouver | 29th | 30-43-9 | No |
| Colorado | 30th | 22-56-4 | No |
None of these teams reached the playoffs, though the Islanders came awfully close. They won seven of their final 10 regular-season games to make things interesting but went a combined 0-for-10 with the man advantage in their three losses over that stretch - including an 0-for-6 showing in a heartbreaking 2-1 loss to the Boston Bruins. A win, and they're in.
2015-16 season
| TEAM | PP RANK | RECORD | PLAYOFFS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ottawa | 26th | 38-35-9 | No |
| Vancouver | 27th | 31-38-13 | No |
| Tampa Bay | 28th | 46-31-5 | Yes |
| Toronto | 29th | 29-42-11 | No |
| Winnipeg | 30th | 35-39-8 | No |
The Lightning squeezed into the playoffs as the East's No. 6 seed despite a power-play unit that succeeded just 15.8 percent of the time. Tampa Bay was quite fortunate that season, going 21-10-5 in one-goal games - but also boasted the league's seventh-best penalty-killing unit (84 percent) while squandering just three of its 38 third-period leads.
2014-15 season
| TEAM | PP RANK | RECORD | PLAYOFFS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Toronto | 26th | 30-44-8 | No |
| Minnesota | 27th | 46-28-8 | Yes |
| Anaheim | 28th | 51-24-7 | Yes |
| Colorado | 29th | 39-31-12 | No |
| Buffalo | 30th | 23-51-8 | No |
This wacky season produced not one, but two playoff teams with bottom-five power-play success rates. The Wild's inclusion was an easy one to figure out - they allowed the NHL's fourth-fewest goals in the regular season - while the Ducks were an unfathomable (and absolutely unrepeatable) 33-1-7 in one-goal games. That kind of luck will conquer anything.
2013-14 season
| TEAM | PP RANK | RECORD | PLAYOFFS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vancouver | 26th | 36-35-11 | No |
| Los Angeles | 27th | 46-28-8 | Yes |
| Carolina | 28th | 36-35-11 | No |
| Buffalo | 29th | 25-51-10 | No |
| Florida | 30th | 29-45-8 | No |
The Kings proved you can not only make the playoffs with a terrible power play, you can win the whole darned thing. Of course, it wasn't like Los Angeles was a pushover going into the postseason - it allowed the fewest goals against in the regular season, then caught fire during its wild playoff run (on the strength of a 23.5-percent power-play success rate. Go figure.)
2012-13 season
| TEAM | PP RANK | RECORD | PLAYOFFS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Boston | 26th | 28-14-6 | Yes |
| Carolina | 27th | 19-25-4 | No |
| Columbus | 28th | 24-17-7 | No |
| Buffalo | 29th | 21-21-6 | No |
| Winnipeg | 30th | 24-21-3 | No |
Stop me if you've heard this before: The Bruins earned a top-three berth in the East by virtue of allowing the conference's second-fewest goals, in combination with the league's fourth-best penalty-killing rate (87.1 percent). It also helped that Boston surrendered just two shorthanded goals in the shortened season, more than just six other teams.
Findings
So on one hand, the odds aren't exactly in the Blue Jackets' favor. But if you consider the commonalities between teams that did prevail despite struggling with the man advantage, you could make a case that Columbus is in position to join the Lightning, Wild, Ducks, Kings, and Bruins as playoff teams with less-than-potent power plays:
- Defense/goaltending: This has easily been the Blue Jackets' strength to date, as they come into Tuesday having allowed the second-fewest goals in the Eastern Conference. Goaltender Sergei Bobrovsky is flashing Vezina Trophy form through the first quarter of the season with a 2.02 goals-against average, a .933 save percentage, and two shutouts.
- Penalty killing: The Blue Jackets have been quite solid here, too, entering Tuesday with the league's 10th-ranked penalty killing unit at 83.4 percent. Columbus hasn't surrendered a man-advantage goal since giving up three in a Nov. 6 loss to the New York Rangers, and are a perfect 13-for-13 in six games since.
- One-goal games: A little good fortune is critical for teams with power play deficiencies - and in that regard, Columbus has been great. The Blue Jackets are an almost-flawless 7-0-1 in one-goal games this season, leading the league with an .875 winning percentage in those situations. They're no 2014-15 Anaheim Ducks, but still - not bad.
So yes, the Blue Jackets could very well end up as a top-three team in the East even if their power play doesn't improve. But they'll need to continue getting elite-level goaltending and a little luck in close games - and it wouldn't hurt to score a few more goals with the man advantage.
(Photos courtesy: Getty Images)
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