There have been two major talking points as to why the Predators, the NHL's 16th seed, have been able to make it all the way to the Stanley Cup Final:
1) The play of goaltender Pekka Rinne
2) The offense generated by their top-four defensemen
Rinne might be the No. 1 story of Nashville's playoff run, but the play of their defensemen has to be 1B.
P.K. Subban, Roman Josi, Ryan Ellis, and Mattias Ekholm have all been sensational in the postseason, but their combined numbers have taken a very slight hit in the Stanley Cup Final.
| Stat | Rounds 1-3 | vs. PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Goals per game | 0.7 | 0.6 |
| Assists per game | 1.8 | 1.6 |
| Points per game | 2.4 | 2.2 |
| Shots per game | 9.1 | 8.2 |
Though it's just a small reduction in productivity, the argument could be made that if their points per game had increased by 0.2 instead of decreasing by 0.2, Nashville would be ahead in the series.
Perhaps the more telling statistic is scoring chances for (SCF). The following table indicates how many SCF the Predators have recorded per game (at five-on-five) while each player was on the ice.
| Player | SCF/G 1-3 | SCF/G vs. PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Josi | 9.2 | 8.8 |
| Ellis | 9.3 | 7.2 |
| Subban | 9.4 | 7.8 |
| Ekholm | 9.9 | 7.4 |
(Stats courtesy: Natural Stat Trick)
As you can see, there is a more dramatic decrease compared to your standard goal and assist numbers. It's clear Nashville's top-four D aren't generating as much offense as they were, but why?
The main reason is because of the way Pittsburgh sets up in the defensive zone compared to Nashville's prior opponents.
St. Louis and Anaheim, in particular, collapsed in front of the net in order to block shots. This gave Nashville's mobile defensemen room to roam free in the offensive zone. They all have the ability to find open shooting lanes when given time with the puck on their stick.
The Penguins have done a terrific job taking away time and space from the Preds' defensemen. Rather than sitting back and trying to block shots, their forwards are out covering the points, forcing Nashville's defensemen to just chip pucks deep rather than holding onto the puck, setting up plays, and blasting point shots.
Nashville needs Subban, Josi, Ellis, and Ekholm to be difference-makers in Games 6 and 7 if it's going to win the Cup. The quartet is going to have to find a way to navigate through Pittsburgh's in-your-face defensive zone coverage in order to do so.
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