Sample size, anyone?
The Montreal Canadiens' and Minnesota Wild's seasons ended Saturday, the clubs joining the Chicago Blackhawks as 100-plus point teams eliminated in the first round. All shared the same fate: Beaten by otherworldly goaltending.
Here are the five-on-five save percentages of Henrik Lundqvist, Jake Allen, and Pekka Rinne after the first round:
| Goalie | GP | EV SV% | EV GA | EV Svs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rinne | 4 | .991 | 1 | 114 |
| Allen | 5 | .968 | 5 | 152 |
| Lundqvist | 6 | .952 | 8 | 158 |
That has to be one of the finer four-game stretches of Rinne's career, because those numbers are downright silly, but the Nashville Predators' defense deserves a ton of credit, too. Look at what they were able to do to Chicago:
(Courtesy: @IneffectiveMath)
Hot goalie, hot team, hot coach. A perfect Nashville storm.
However, if you heard Blackhawks general manager Stan Bowman's presser on Saturday, you'd have no idea he was talking about a team that two years ago won its third Stanley Cup in seven seasons with a core built around Jonathan Toews, Patrick Kane, Duncan Keith, and head coach Joel Quenneville.
"Completely disappointed. It's unacceptable. I'm frustrated. I'm angry," Bowman said.
"Complete failure," he threw in for good measure, adding that changes would be made after a second straight first-round exit, this one after the Blackhawks' second 50-win season in franchise history.
Should a team be judged based on 82 games, or four? Even if the club overachieved a little bit in the regular season, at least according to Kane, you decide.
That's why he's the King
The Habs were the better team at five on five against New York. Okay, perhaps "better" is subjective, but Montreal certainly had the puck more often.
| Team | Corsi For | Corsi Against | Corsi % | Corsi Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Canadiens | 335 | 301 | 52.67% | 3rd |
| Rangers | 301 | 335 | 47.33% | 14th |
(Data Courtesy: Corsica Hockey)
Canadiens captain Max Pacioretty finished with more fighting majors than goals in six games (one to zero), and 28 shots. That's a zero shooting percentage for a five-time 30-goal scorer (and three-time 35-goal scorer) and career 11.4 percent shooter. Believe it or not, he's the same Pacioretty who shot 10.9 percent in last year's postseason.
It gets crazier. People in Montreal are actually, physically, in real life talking about trading goaltender Carey Price, a Vezina Trophy finalist this season, who stopped 93.3 percent of the shots the Rangers fired at him, and 93.6 at even strength. That's exactly what you don't do when you lose to King Henrik.
This version of the Canadiens was far from perfect, but if you think Pacioretty and Price - Carey Price! - are the problem, you need to log off of Twitter, go for a long walk in the woods, and re-evaluate some of your life decisions.
Allen delivers the Blues
Allen didn't go into the playoffs for St. Louis with a standout spring resume going back to 2015. The opposite, actually. And check out the shot totals after the Blues' five-game series win.
| Playoffs | GP | SV% | SA | SV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 & 2016 | 11 | .902 | 193 | 174 |
| 2017 | 5 | .956 | 182 | 174 |
Yeah, that'll do.
The poor Wild. Alive since 2000, this was Minnesota's best statistical season, with the club setting franchise records in wins (49) and points (106). And just like that, they're done. And it's because of Allen.
| Team | CF | CA | Corsi% | Corsi Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wild | 283 | 182 | 60.86% | 1st |
| Blues | 182 | 283 | 39.14% | 16th |
(Data Courtesy: Corsica Hockey)
The irony: Minnesota ranked 20th in possession during the regular season, coming in at 49.35 percent. They finally had the puck - like, all the time - and couldn't do a bloody thing with it. That's hockey, sometimes.
Possession ain't god
Look, possession isn't everything. No one's saying it is. But the top three possession teams in the first round - Minnesota, Montreal, and the Columbus Blue Jackets - are done after five, six, and five games, respectively.
Once the regular season ends, it doesn't matter. That's the truth. But another truth is that anything can happen in the playoffs, that luck is a big reason why a team ends up moving on, and even winning the Stanley Cup.
Allen and Rinne can, in fact, stop basically everything you throw at them over a week (we already knew Lundqvist could). Does that mean you blow up your team, based on four-to-six games?
A short series due to a hot goalie and some poor luck is just that - a short series due to a hot goalie and some bad luck. View it in a vacuum at your peril.
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