Squad Up Daily NHL Fantasy Dose: Sharks go deeper than the Oil(ers)

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Here is a look at the Squad Up daily NHL fantasy picture for Thursday, March 30 (all advanced statistics courtesy of Corsica.Hockey and apply to 5v5 situations):

Dynamic Duos

  • LW Mikkel Boedker (26K) & C Tomas Hertl (42K), Sharks (at Oilers): The Oilers have been expected to allow 2.90 goals per 60 minutes since March 1. While they see more scoring chances than their opponents, they've posted a Corsi For rating of just 46.67 in the past month. San Jose operates at a 51.94 percent possession rate. Hertl hasn't played on a line with a Corsi For rating below 50 percent this season.
  • C Derick Brassard (45K) & RW Mark Stone (44K), Senators (at Wild): It's been ill-advised to target the Wild this season due to their excellent team goaltending and overall team defense. They're expected to start third-string G Alex Stalock on Thursday, creating opportunity for the Senators. The line of Brassard, Stone and C Zack Smith have averaged 2.61 expected goals per 60 minutes and a 56 percent possession rate.
  • C Valtteri Filppula (29K) & RW Wayne Simmonds (60K), Flyers (vs. Islanders): Filppula set a seven-game high with 18:22 of ice time in Philadelphia's shootout win over the Senators on Tuesday. He has just two goals and two assists with the Flyers, but he tallied multiple shots in each of his past two outings for the first time since his first two games with the team. Simmonds has multiple SOG in 11 of 14 games this month.

(Photo courtesy Action Images)

Goalie Breakdown

  • TARGET - Tuukka Rask (114K), Bruins (vs. Stars): The Stars have managed just 2.45 expected goals per 60 minutes over the past month, but they've still maintained an average of 28.50 shots on goal per 60 minutes. They rank just 20th in power-play percentage for the season, while the Bruins sit fourth in penalty-kill percentage.
  • BARGAIN - Cam Ward (76K), Hurricanes (vs. Blue Jackets): Ward allowed at least three goals in each of his first seven games this month before receiving a full week off. He returned to make 21 of 22 saves. The Blue Jackets rank 26th in CF% since March 1.
  • FADE - Cam Talbot (102K), Oilers (vs. Sharks): The Sharks have averaged more scoring chances per 60 minutes than all but five teams at 9.75 SCF60. They convert those into 2.57 goals per 60 minutes. Talbot has two shutouts this month, but he also allowed four goals on three occasions, including in two of his past three appearances.
  • CONTRARIAN - G Alex Stalock (110K), Wild (vs. Senators) - As mentioned above, Stalock's billing as a third-string goalie is a prime target for the opposing offense. He is coming off a 32-save shutout in the AHL, and he does have a .911 career save percentage in 62 NHL games (46 starts) with the San Jose Sharks. This will be his first NHL start of 2016-17.

(Photo courtesy Action Images)

Bargain Plays

  • C Zack Smith (26K), Senators (at Wild): Mentioned above, Smith's averages of nearly two shots on goal and two hits per game offer a stable floor for Squad Up contests, while Brassard and Stone rely much more heavily on offensive contributions. Smith's style lends itself to a productive evening against the Wild's strong defense even if he fails to hit the scoresheet.
  • LW Nick Ritchie (27K), Ducks (at Jets): Ritchie's ice time has been on the decline, as he has been held below 13 minutes in four of his past five games. He has still totaled two goals, two assists, 15 hits and three blocked shots in those five games. The Jets allow 31.68 shots and 10.41 scoring chances per 60 minutes. Ritchie remains opposite RW Corey Perry on Anaheim's balanced third line.
  • RW Anthony Mantha (26K), Red Wings (at Lighting): Mantha's ice time has been volatile during Detroit's 3-1-1 run over its past five games. He has three goals but no assists during the stretch, playing a low of 9:47 and a high of 15:42. He tallied seven SOG in his most recent outing and remains the primary shot taker on a line with C Dylan Larkin and LW Justin Abdelkader.

(Photo courtesy Getty Images)

Top Fades

  • RW Corey Perry (56K), Ducks (at Jets): There has been little difference between the production of Perry and the aforementioned Ritchie since being separated from C Ryan Getzlaf. He has two goals and an assist over his past five games, but he has just 11 SOG. He hit the 18-minute mark just once, falling short of 17 minutes in each of the other four.
  • C Tyler Seguin (62K), Stars (at Bruins): Boston has allowed a league-low 25.03 shots on goal per 60 minutes since March 1. Opponents have turned these into an adequate 8.04 scoring chances per 60 but just 2.16 expected goals. Seguin has two games with one or fewer SOG out of his past five contests.
  • LW Max Pacioretty (74K), Canadiens (vs. Panthers): Pacioretty has been held below 18 minutes in two of his past three games. He has gone point-less in three consecutive outings, though he has totaled eight SOG. While the Panthers are expected to deploy G Reto Berra, Pacioretty's salary is much too high relative to his recent performances.

(Photo courtesy Getty Images)

Contrarian Options

  • LW Filip Forsberg (62K), Predators (vs. Maple Leafs): Forsberg has struggled of late, notching just one assist over his past five games. He has notched at least three SOG in three of the five games, but tallied just one in each of the other two. The Maple Leafs' road defense has been porous over the past month, allowing 10.50 scoring chances and 2.91 expected goals per 60 minutes.
  • C Patrice Bergeron (77K), Bruins (vs. Stars): Bergeron -- typically a pass-first center -- has tallied 19 SOG over his past five games. He has just one goal and one assist and is an uncharacteristic minus-5 over his past three games.
  • D Cam Fowler (35K), Ducks (at Jets): Fowler has notched an impressive 18 SOG over his past five games, registering three assists. He played at least 23 minutes in each of his past four games. The Jets rank in the bottom-half of the league with 30.36 SOG allowed per 60 minutes over the past month.

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