Squad Up Daily NHL Fantasy Dose: Load up on Leafs at home

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Here is a look at the Squad Up daily NHL fantasy picture for Thursday, Mar. 9 (all advanced statistics courtesy of Corsica.Hockey and apply to 5v5 situations):

Dynamic Duos

  • C Mitchell Marner (52K) and LW James van Riemsdyk (58K), Maple Leafs (vs. Flyers): Toronto is back in business, ending a five-game losing skid last time out with a 3-2 triumph over Detroit. Look for the Maple Leafs to get back to their high-scoring ways in the comfortable confines of the Air Canada Centre against a Flyers team that ranks among the worst in the Eastern Conference in goals against.
  • C Jonathan Toews (68K) and RW Patrick Kane (93K), Blackhawks (vs. Ducks): Toews and Kane don't play on the same line at 5v5, but that doesn't make them any less valuable as a combo play. Both players have been red-hot; Toews has 27 points in his last 18 games, while Kane has put up 21 points - including 14 goals - in his previous 13 contests. This is a high-end pairing, but one with the highest ceiling of the night.
  • RW Mark Stone (54K) and D Erik Karlsson (59K), Senators (at Coyotes): Never underestimate the ability of a team already playing for next year to boost the fantasy stats of its opponents. Stone and Karlsson are a reasonably-priced duo with a high ceiling in Arizona; Stone has points in three straight games, and both players had a goal and an assist apiece in their previous meeting with the Coyotes.

Goalie Breakdown

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  • TARGET - Thomas Greiss (109K), Islanders (at Canucks): Greiss has been a bit shaky of late, allowing three or more goals in three of his last five games. But none of the teams he faced were as deficient as the Canucks, who rank second from the bottom in shots per game (27.5). The danger here is that Greiss allows three goals on 20 shots, but the more likely scenario is him returning value in all formats.
  • BARGAIN - Mike Condon (79K), Senators (at Coyotes): Vegas has the Senators as a comfortable fave in this one, and even with a total of 5 1/2, you should expect Condon to assert himself well in Craig Anderson's absence. His road numbers (9-7-0, 2.79 GAA, .903 SV%) don't inspire a lot of confidence, but a game against Arizona can work wonders for a goaltender's numbers. Fire him up in cash games.
  • FADE - Mike Smith (114K), Coyotes (vs. Senators): Condon's Thursday counterpart has a sub-.500 record at home (10-11-3) and has been mostly dreadful of late, surrendering 16 goals over his last four games. He'll likely face a good number of shots, which would, on its own, make him an intriguing contrarian play should he stand on his head. But at this salary, Smith is completely unplayable.
  • CONTRARIAN - Calvin Pickard, Avalanche (vs. Devils): A Colorado netminder? What am I thinking? Well, I'm thinking that the Devils have one of the worst offenses in hockey, and are playing on the road two time zones separated from their home arena. Pickard is by no means a sure thing to post 25+ Squad Up points, but if you're looking to zig while others zag, this is the way to do it.

Bargain Plays

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  • C Mikko Koivu (36K), Wild (at Lightning): It's hard to believe that Koivu finds himself as one of the lowest-priced centers of the night, but here we are. Having recorded one point in his last three games is certainly a factor, but he had racked up 10 points in seven games before that. He had a goal on five shots last time out against St. Louis, and is terrific value against an underwhelming Lightning defense.
  • RW Patrick Eaves (36K), Ducks (at Blackhawks): Eaves hasn't missed a beat since being traded from the Stars to the Ducks, scoring twice and adding a pair of assists in four games with Anaheim. It's unfathomable for him to be priced so low, even with a difficult matchup with the red-hot Blackhawks up next. Take a shot on Eaves if you're playing in a big-money contest and looking for some reliable salary relief.
  • D Ryan Suter (35K), Wild (at Lightning): Suter is another player who should probably carry a higher price tag, if only because the sheer volume of ice time he sees often leads to production no matter how well Minnesota plays. Suter has increased his viability with assists in consecutive games, and should see upwards of 28+ minutes Thursday in Tampa Bay. He's a terrific option in all formats.

Top Fades

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  • LW Alex Ovechkin (75K), Capitals (at Sharks): This might seem like a great price for a perennial 50-goal stud, but Ovechkin hasn't been that guy for a while now. He has just two goals in his previous 14 games, and has found the back of the net only 10 times in his 31 road games this season. Go ahead and spend away if you think he's due, but that's a dangerous way to use 25% of your cap space.
  • RW Kyle Palmieri (77K), Devils (at Avalanche): Palmieri might be one of New Jersey's top scoring threats, but is he really worth a higher salary than all but two forwards on Thursday's slate? Probably not, even with a nice matchup against Colorado. The Devils have been shutout in three of their last four games, and are a threat to post a goose egg on any given night. Fade Palmieri in every format.
  • D Brent Burns (68K), Sharks (vs. Capitals): You can't doubt Burns' ability to put up boatloads of Squad Up points no matter the opponent - but with the Capitals boasting the best goal prevention in the league, Burns' whopping price tag is a little too rich for a successful cash game lineup. Burns has just one assist in three games so far this month, and has been held without a goal in six straight.

Contrarian Options

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  • C Matt Duchene (52K), Avalanche (vs. Devils): Duchene is ice-cold, having gone eight games without a point while registering a collective minus-6 rating over that span. So at the very least, selecting him is about as contrarian as it gets. And while the Devils get a reputation as a defensive power, they're only middle of the pack in goals per game allowed away from New Jersey (2.76). Try Duchene in a coins-only game.
  • LW Taylor Hall (73K), Devils (at Avalanche): If you're going to roster a Devils skater Thursday, make it Hall. He's far and away the most dangerous player on the roster, and has been a bit unlucky of late, going seven games without a goal despite recording three or more shots three times in that span. Colorado is susceptible to the kind of breakdowns that Hall takes full advantage of; he's high risk, but high reward.
  • RW Radim Vrbata (67K), Coyotes (vs. Senators): Of all the Arizona players to suit up Thursday, Vrbata is easily the most motivated, as he'll appear in his 1,000th career NHL game. While that alone isn't enough to make him worth rostering, consider that he recently put together a 10-game point streak and sees enough high-leverage ice time to be a threat each and every game.

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