Unless his production falls off a cliff between now and the final game of the regular season, Auston Matthews will finish as one of the most prolific teenage snipers in NHL history.
Through 54 games this season, the rookie Toronto Maple Leafs centerman has racked up 25 goals - tops among his fellow first-years and tied for eighth-best among all NHL skaters. Matthews' ranking among this season's best is impressive enough, but his current trajectory has him in line to flirt with a much loftier crowd.
If he continues to score at his current pace, Matthews will amass 38 goals by season's end, a sum that would tie Ilya Kovalchuk as the 10th-most ever posted by a 19-year-old NHLer.
That would put the new Leaf in some elite company - here's the list of history's top 10 goal-scorers at Matthews' age:
| Name | Season | Goals |
|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Carson | 1987‑88 | 55 |
| Wayne Gretzky | 1980‑81 | 55 |
| Steven Stamkos | 2009‑10 | 51 |
| Mario Lemieux | 1984‑85 | 43 |
| Owen Nolan | 1991‑92 | 42 |
| Brian Bellows | 1983‑84 | 41 |
| Eric Lindros | 1992‑93 | 41 |
| Rick Nash | 2003‑04 | 41 |
| Dale Hawerchuk | 1982‑83 | 40 |
| Ilya Kovalchuk | 2002‑03 | 38 |
Considering the context of who he would pass and who he's outshone lately - none of the past seven No.1 draft picks managed to alter this top-10 list at age 19 - climbing up those ranks would be a noteworthy achievement for the young pivot.
Adding in the 18-year-old crowd, Matthews' production still projects to rank among the best. Only five players managed to post 39 goals or more at that age. Two are on the list above (Gretzky and Hawerchuk), with the others being Sylvain Turgeon (40 goals), Sidney Crosby (39 goals), and Steve Yzerman (39 goals).
Matthews' end-of-season production isn't easy to pin down, though.
If there's one thing the rookie star has made clear this season, it's that he's got a flair for the dramatic. Four goals in his debut, a thrilling overtime winner to clinch the Centennial Classic - he does his best work when the spotlight's bright and his back is against the wall.
That's going to be the Leafs' reality for the rest of 2016-17, as Toronto is caught in a tooth-and-nail battle for a playoff spot that won't be resolved any time soon.
Currently holding onto a wild-card position - just a point away from a top-three divisional ranking and in fact tied with the top playoff outsider trying to get back in - the Leafs are going to need every bit of Matthews' goal-scoring talent down the stretch.
His efforts thus far suggest he'll deliver. And if he does, the American sniper could find himself flirting with the 40-goal range by game 82, and likely a spot among history's most impressive teenage performances.
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