Squad Up Daily NHL Fantasy Dose: Predators have edge over Canadiens once again

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Here is a look at the Squad Up daily NHL fantasy picture for Tuesday, Jan. 3 (all advanced stats courtesy of Corsica.Hockey and apply to 5v5 situations):

Triple Threat

  • LW Kevin Fiala (30K), C Mike Ribeiro (35K), RW Craig Smith (30K), Predators (vs. Canadiens): The Canadiens visit Nashville on the first half of a back-to-back. They dropped their most recent game and have just four wins in their past 10 games. Fiala, Ribeiro and Smith's Corsi For rating of 64.38 percent is the best of any trio the Predators have used this season.
  • LW Evander Kane (46K), C Sam Reinhart (52K), RW Kyle Okposo (60K), Sabres (at Rangers): The Rangers' Corsi For percentage has plummeted to 48.93, ranking 23rd in the league. The Sabres aren't much better as a team, but Kane and Reinhart have recently been united at 5v5 and Okposo joins Reinhart on the top power play unit and plays with C Jack Eichel at 5v5.
  • LW Ondrej Palat (60K), C Tyler Johnson (59K), RW Nikita Kucherov (66K), Lightning (vs. Jets): Tampa Bay's second-most common trio for the season is the top active threesome. Palat, Johnson and Kucherov have a CF% of 51.42 together with 2.94 expected goals for per 60 minutes, compared to just 1.95 expected goals against. All three are on the top power play unit.

Goalie Breakdown

  • TARGET - Andrei Vasilevskiy (94K), Lightning (vs. Jets): The Jets are expected to score just 2.07 goals per 60 minutes of 5v5 play while on the road, the fourth-lowest rate in the league. Vasilevskiy stopped 26 of the 27 shots he faced his last time out, ending a stretch of three games with at least three goals allowed. Ownership will be moderate at worst.
  • BARGAIN - Cam Ward (78K), Hurricanes (vs. Devils): The disparity between Ward's home and away splits continues to be a major theme for the Hurricanes and for daily fantasy bargain seekers. He has a sparkling goals against average of 1.91 and a save percentage of .931 while at home. The Devils average just 6.78 scoring chances per 60 minutes on the road.
  • FADE - Braden Holtby (103K), Capitals (vs. Maple Leafs): Holtby has allowed one or fewer goals in three of his past four starts, but the Maple Leafs have the second-highest expected goals for rate of all road teams this season. The Leafs' defense and goaltending still take plenty of hits, so Holtby may get the win, but he could be pulled if the Leafs capitalize early.
  • CONTRARIAN - Robin Lehner (88K), Sabres (at Rangers): The Rangers have scored six goals in each of their past two games, with four goals scored in each of the two preceding games. Lehner made at least 30 saves in eight of 10 December games, but he went just 3-7. Whenever he gets credited for a victory, he's usually the top option of the night.

Bargain Plays

  • C Sam Gagner (25K), Blue Jackets (vs. Oilers): Gagner finished December with six goals and nine assists for 15 points in 14 games. He topped 15 minutes of ice time just twice, as he skates on the fourth line at 5v5. He jumps up to center the top power-play unit, giving him extremely favorable competition and situational play. He shouldn't be at the minimum salary.
  • LW Marcus Foligno (27K), Sabres (at Rangers): A matchup against G Henrik Lundqvist and the Rangers is less than desirable, but Foligno is expected to skate with Eichel aboard the Sabres' top line. He has just five goals and seven assists on the season but the increased ice time and opportunity beside his team's top player makes him a quality choice at a low cost.
  • RW Marian Gaborik (32K), Kings (at Sharks): Gaborik remains on the Kings' top line, while RW Dustin Brown is expected to jump up to join him and C Anze Kopitar. Brown's best days are well behind him but the new look can't hurt the team with the fourth-fewest goals scored this season. Gaborik has just three points in December, but he totaled seven SOG in his final three games.

Top Fades

  • D Shea Weber (54K), Canadiens (at Predators): Weber finished December with just three points, and he totaled just five shots on goal in the final three games. His lone goal came on the power play. His ice time remains extremely high, as he totaled 28:42 in his most recent game, which included an overtime session. His TOI has routinely been lower in the first half of a back-to-back.
  • C Joe Pavelski (81K), Sharks (vs. Kings): Pavelski recorded at least one point in all but three of his 13 games in December. He totaled just five SOG in his past three games, while playing just 18 minutes in each of his two most recent games. He isn't worthy of being the most expensive player on Squad Up against a Kings team allowing just 2.38 goals per game.
  • LW Jonathan Drouin (57K), Lightning (vs. Jets): Though he tallied three shots on goal and scored in his most recent game, Drouin played just 13:48. He has been dropped back to Tampa Bay's third line, limiting his offensive opportunities. He still works the point on the second power play unit, but his salary isn't reflective of his decreased opportunity.

Contrarian Options

  • C Nicklas Backstrom (59K), Capitals (vs. Maple Leafs): Backstrom hasn't scored in six consecutive games, and he has gone without a shot in each of his past two outings. The Maple Leafs' high pace gives them projected goal totals of 2.72 for and 2.80 against per 60 minutes of 5v5 play while on the road. The higher pace should boost Backstrom's floor.
  • LW Filip Forsberg (61K), Predators (vs. Canadiens): Forsberg has scored in five of his past six games, but he had just one assist in December. Anyone facing Canadiens G Carey Price is always a risky pick, but Forsberg is shooting at an increased rate of late and has been immune to tough goaltender matchups during his streak.
  • RW Kyle Palmieri (68K), Devils (at Hurricanes): A matchup with the aforementioned Ward warrants some hesitation with Palmieri, but other than recording five shots in his most recent game, he totaled just five shots in his previous five outings. He had a 18.2 shooting percentage in December.

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