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A lot of fantasy hockey player analysis looks primarily at those going from a relative unknown to being a viable fantasy asset. Alternatively, players losing their fantasy relevancy and becoming non-assets also receive plenty of attention.
Here we'll look at some players who began the season as mid-tier options but so far have produced among the league's best in at least one offensive category. Is their status among the elite cemented or should their owners be thankful for what they've received in terms of production and now move on?
RW Nikita Kucherov, Tampa Bay Lightning
Kucherov is on pace to shatter the career high of 66 points he set in 77 games last season. He has 13 goals and 30 points through the opening 28 games, with five goals and nine points in the 12 games since C Steven Stamkos fell to injury (leg). He is averaging three shots on goal per game for the season, with the number rising to 3.4 since Stamkos last played.
He has most frequently played with C Tyler Johnson and LW Ondrej Palat as the Lightning's top line at 5v5. He has a Corsi For rating of 52.03 at 5v5, per Corsica.Hockey. His team averages 9.73 scoring chances per 60 minutes of 5v5 play while he's on the ice, contributing to an expected goals for per 60 of 2.66.
Kucherov should easily top his career-best 30 goals this season and even approach 80 points. He'll rank among the league leaders in SOG and roughly a third of his production will continue to come on the power play.
C Mark Scheifele, Winnipeg Jets
Scheifele is in a four-way tie for 10th in league scoring, two points behind Kucherov with one additional game played. His 14 goals through 29 games have him on pace to top last year's career-high of 29 and his 28 total points thus far are already nearly halfway to last year's total.
He is taking less shots this season, partially due to the emergence of Ws Patrik Laine and Nikolaj Ehlers. His 19.2 shooting percentage is a career best and is unsustainable, but even a regression toward the career rate of 13.1 will allow him to top 30 goals. Just five of his points have come via the power play, so he could see an uptick in special teams production.
He surprisingly owns a negative Corsi rating at 5v5 and the Jets allow more scoring chances per 60 minutes than they generate with Scheifele on the ice. Still, Scheifle has enough talent on his wings and the return of C Bryan Little will afford him some increased opportunities against easier competition. He's another quality candidate for 80-plus points with 30 goals.
C Ryan Kesler, Anaheim Ducks
Kesler is having a resurgent season with 25 points through the opening 30 games, after totaling 205 points in 331 games over his past five seasons. He's on pace for 33 goals in a full 82 games, though his 16.7 shooting percentage is considerably above his career rate.
Increased power-play opportunity has been a major boon, as 12 of his 25 points have come with the man advantage. He has already played 93.19 minutes at 5v4 this season, after totaling just 157.22 minutes and 12 PPP last year.
Kesler is well on his way toward a fourth consecutive 20-goal season, likely to finish closer to 25. Expect up to 60 points, with his value boosted by blocked shots, hits and penalty minutes in banger leagues.
RW Alexander Radulov, Montreal Canadiens
Radulov is tied with now-injured teammate C Alex Galchenyuk for 34th in league scoring. He has just six goals, but 17 assists on the season. He is averaging two SOG per game, with his 11.1 shooting percentage being lower than in any of his previous three NHL seasons.
The Canadiens have loaded up their top line with C Tomas Plekanec, Radulov and LW Max Pacioretty, while Galchenyuk and C David Desharnais are sidelined by injury. It's a measure which should help any potential slump Radulov would have been facing without his primary centerman.
Seven of Radulov's 11 assists at 5v5 have been primary, showing likely continued production in the category without luck having been much of a factor. His seven power-play points account for roughly a third of his point total, meeting expectation with 73.4 minutes played at 5v4.
Radulov should still be expected to reach 20 goals, with 60-70 points being well within reach.
G Devan Dubnyk, Minnesota Wild
Dubnyk leads the NHL in both save percentage (.947) and goals against average (1.60) with both numbers easily representing career bests. He has won 14 of his 23 starts, picking up four shutouts which are just one shy of his career best totals from each of the past two seasons.
While the Wild do a good job of limiting opponent shots, Dubnyk is facing the seventh-closest average shot distance of all goalies with at least 800 minutes played at 5v5, at 33.19 feet. His 19 rebound shots against are the fewest of all goalies and only six goalies have faced fewer than Dubnyk's 35 rush shots faced.
The Wild rank ninth with 2.82 goals for per game, while its 1.96 goals against per game is easily the best mark in the league. Minnesota is a likely playoff team, so Dubnyk should have a quality wins total with an extremely heavy workload. His SV% and GAA are destined for at least mild regression, but he at least needs to be considered within the middle of the top tier of goaltenders.
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