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Here is a look at the Squad Up daily NHL fantasy picture for Wednesday, December 7 (advanced stats courtesy of Corsica.Hockey):
Triple Threat
- C Eric Staal (48K), RW Nino Niederreiter (38K), D Ryan Suter (32K), Wild (at Toronto): Though the Maple Leafs are much better at the ACC than on the road, they have the fifth-highest xGA60 (expected goals against per 60) at home at 5v5. Staal's bounce-back season has been a major reason why Niederreiter has seven points in his last seven games. Suter is much cheaper than he should be.
- C Joe Thornton (46K), LW Patrick Marleau (47K), D Brent Burns (72K), Sharks (vs. Senators): Drafting Thornton rather than Pavelski allows you to afford Burns and still have a reasonable amount of remaining salary. Mike Condon will be in goal for Ottawa. Last season he went 4-11-3 with an .880 SV% against Western Conference teams. He had a 4.06 GAA in two games against the Sharks.
- C Ryan Getzlaf (71K), LW Nick Ritchie (25K), RW Corey Perry (74K), Ducks (vs. Hurricanes): The Ducks will take on a Hurricanes team that is just 3-7-5 on the road this season. Travelling across three time zones is never easy. Anaheim has the fifth-best xGF60 (expected goals for per 60 minutes) at home at 5v5. Ritchie's low salary balances out the expensive prices of Getzlaf and Perry.
Bargain Plays
- G Martin Jones (80K), Sharks (vs. Senators): Jones has a .924 SV% and a 1.99 GAA this season, but he is priced just above the minimum salary for goaltenders. He will face an Ottawa team that generates the fifth-fewest SCF60 (scoring chances for per 60 minutes) on the road at 5v5. Overall, the Sens rank 23rd in goals per game.
- D Morgan Rielly (28K), Maple Leafs (vs. Wild): Rielly plays nearly 23 minutes per night, sees time on both the power play and the penalty kill is averaging over 0.5 points per game. It's quite puzzling why he is priced so low. It might tough to pick up a goal or an assist with Devan Dubnyk in goal for Minnesota, but Rielly can return value with shots and blocks alone.
- LW Nick Ritchie (25K), Ducks (vs. Hurricanes): Ritchie has been reunited on a line with Getzlaf and Perry. He only has five goals and two assists on the season, but his 50 shots and 76 hits provide him a high floor given he doesn't need much to return value. Any goals or assists are just bonuses.
Top Fades
- C Evgeny Kuznetsov (53K), Capitals (vs. Bruins): Kuznetsov's salary refuses to drop relative to his production this season. He has just 10 points in 24 games and the Bruins own the NHL's lowest xGA60 at 5v5.
- RW Sebastian Aho (49K), Hurricanes (at Ducks): Perhaps it was due to being part of a dominant line with Patrik Laine and Jesse Puljujarvi at the 2016 IIHF World Junior Hockey Championships, but Aho faced lofty expectations heading into his rookie season. Those expectations have drawn a high Squad Up salary, but he has just three goals and eight assists in 25 games.
- G Mike Condon (87K), Senators (at Sharks): Condon has been great in five starts for the Sens this season, but it is unlikely to continue. In a much larger sample size, Condon struggled in 55 games last season with Montreal filling in for the injured Carey Price. His west coast struggles are documented in the Triple Threat section. There's no reason why he should be more expensive than Jones.
Contrarian Options
- G Tuukka Rask (76K), Bruins (at Capitals): Rask, the NHL's leader in wins and the owner of a .939 SV% and a 1.68 GAA, is just 1K above the minimum price for a goaltender. The Capitals present a tough matchup which could lower his ownership, but this guy might win the Vezina. Take advantage of this pricing mishap.
- D Erik Karlsson (55K), Senators (at Sharks): Most Squad Up players willing to spend up on elite defenseman will turn to Burns, who has a much better matchup. However, Karlsson should not be 17K cheaper considering their fantasy points per game are nearly identical. Karlsson is coming off a four-point night and is essentially matchup proof.
- C Logan Couture (57K), Sharks (vs. Senators): Couture is questionable to play in Wednesday's game. This, plus the fact that both Pavelski and Thornton are first line players, will keep Couture's ownership down. He has nine goals and seven assists this season and is one game removed from a three-point outing.
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