Squad Up Daily NHL Fantasy Dose: Go with McDavid in expectation he avoids Matthews

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Here is a look at the Squad Up daily NHL fantasy picture for Tuesday, November 29 (advanced stats pulled from Corsica.Hockey):

Triple Threat

  • LW Milan Lucic (55K), C Connor McDavid (90K), RW Jesse Puljujarvi (33K), Oilers (vs. Maple Leafs): Home ice will be key for the Oilers, as they'll be able to deploy their top line away from the Maple Leafs top trio centered by rookie Auston Matthews. While the Leafs have been a strong possession team this season, only one of their four most common trios has a positive Corsi rating.
  • C Erik Haula (34K), RW Nino Niederreiter (43K), D Mathew Dumba (35K), Wild (at Canucks): Along with RW Jason Pominville, Haula and Niederreiter form the Wild's third line. The group starts just 32.43 percent of shifts in the offensive zone, but finishes there on 46.97 percent of 5v5 shifts. Dumba joins Niederreiter as part of the second power-play unit.
  • C Logan Couture (62K), RW Joonas Donskoi (42K), D Brent Burns (77K), Sharks (vs. Coyotes): The Sharks' second line averages 11 more shot attempts per 60 minutes of 5v5 play than their direct opposition. The Coyotes' second line of Anthony Duclair, Christian Dvorak and Jamie McGinn has spent only 41 minutes together at 5v5, but they've posted a Corsi For percentage of just 40.86.

Goalie Breakdown

  • TARGET - Pekka Rinne (96K), Predators (at Avalanche): The Avalanche average just 5.90 scoring chances per 60 minutes of 5v5 play, the lowest rate in the league. They're expected to score just two full-strength goals per 60 minutes, also the lowest. Rinne has stopped 69 of 74 shots he has faced over his past three games, winning each start.
  • BARGAIN - Kari Lehtonen (82K), Stars (at Red Wings): Rarely a safe option, Lehtonen will face a Red Wings with an Expected Goals For per 60 of just 2.16 at 5v5. They're actually scoring at a rate of 2.18 per 60 minutes, posing little more than the expected threat. Lehtonen is reasonably priced after allowing four or more goals in three of his past four starts.
  • FADE - Craig Anderson (126K), Senators (vs. Sabres): Coming off a First Star of the Week performance, Anderson most recently shut out the New York Rangers. He seems like an easy choice at home against the league's worst offense, but the Sabres will have C Jack Eichel rejoin the lineup, adding a significant boost. Buffalo has averaged just 26.6 shots on goal per road game.
  • CONTRARIAN - Connor Hellebuyck (100K), Jets (vs. Devils): While it originally seemed as though it would be a consistently easy choice, picking "Goalie X" against the Devils of late hasn't worked too well. Even without LW Taylor Hall, they've scored 11 goals in their past three games. Hellebuyck is coming off a 42-save shutout of the Predators.

Bargain Plays

  • LW Michael Raffl (26K), Flyers (vs. Bruins): Raffl has recently seen an uptick in playing time, as he plays on the left side of the Flyers' top line with C Claude Giroux and RW Jakub Voracek. He topped 14 minutes in each of his past two games, scoring his fourth goal of the season in his most recent outing. He offers exposure to the other two at a low cost.
  • D Zach Werenski (33K), Blue Jackets (vs. Lightning): Werenski tallied just a single shot in his most recent game, but he totaled seven in the game prior. He hasn't played less than 20 minutes in any of his past 11 games. He has gone without a point just five times in November.
  • RW Craig Smith (34K), Predators (at Avalanche): Smith is playing on the right side of Nashville's second line with pass-first C Mike Ribeiro beside him. Rookie LW Kevin Fiala is filling in for the injured James Neal as the third piece of the trio. Smith has topped 14 minutes of ice time in four of his past five games, totaling four SOG last time out.

Top Fades

  • RW Nikita Kucherov (70K), Lightning (at Blue Jackets): Opposing Blue Jackets G Sergei Bobrovsky has allowed more than two goals in just one of his past six starts. Kucherov ranks second in league scoring, but his salary is at the level where he needs multiple points in order to return value.
  • C Ryan O'Reilly (66K), Sabres (at Senators): The return of Eichel will likely cut into O'Reilly's offensive opportunities, forcing him back into more of a defensive role. As it is, he has just one goal and one assist this month, though he did tally five SOG in each of his past two games.
  • LW Patrick Marleau (58K), Sharks (vs. Coyotes): While Marleau has an extremely favorable matchup while at home, he doesn't have a multi-point game on the year. He doesn't necessarily need one in order to return value, but he has averaged significantly less ice time in games decided by two or more goals this season.

Contrarian Options

  • D Jacob Trouba (30K), Jets (vs. Devils): Trouba finally found some offense in his most recent game, tallying his first two assists of the season. He also logged 27:07 in ice time, his second-highest total of the year. While the Devils have been scoring more of late, they've also been allowing more goals.
  • LW Evander Kane (49K), Sabres (at Senators): While Senators G Craig Anderson has been among the league's best goaltenders this year, he is also allowing more rebound opportunities than anyone else. Part of the reason has been his massive workload, but the second opportunities lend to the benefit of a power forward such as Kane.
  • C Auston Matthews (57K), Maple Leafs (at Oilers): Per Corsica, Talbot has faced more Rush Shots than any other goalie this year. The high-danger, fast-break chances provide an opportunity for the speed and capitalization of Matthews.

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