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Here are 10 players who should see regression that will have a negative impact on their fantasy values:
D Brent Burns, San Jose Sharks
Burns has picked up where he concluded the 2015-16 season, racking up nine points through the Sharks' first six games. He has registered an astonishing 29 shots on goal, making his three goals extremely reasonable.
The biggest cause for concern is the discrepancy in his primary and secondary assists. Burns is averaging 3.14 assists per 60 minutes of 5v5 play but just 1.26 primary helpers.
C Ryan Johansen, Nashville Predators
All four of Johansen's four assists on the season have come with the Predators on the man advantage. The Predators have the league's second-worst Corsi For rating at 5v5, sitting at 44.64.
As a team they have a 47.4-percent success rate on the power play, with Johansen having factored into four of their nine goals. The Predators' talent is indisputable, but they'll need improved play at 5v5 for Johansen to maintain his production.
LW Richard Panik, Chicago Blackhawks
The most obvious name on this list, Panik is also the least controversial. Panik is leading the league with six goals through six games, but he has registered just nine SOG on the season.
Toronto Maple Leafs C Auston Matthews and Philadelphia Flyers RW Matt Read are tied for second with five goals apiece, but they have 22 and 15 SOG, respectively.
LW/RW Lee Stempniak, Carolina Hurricanes
Stempniak is off to a strong start for the second consecutive season. Last year, with the New Jersey Devils, he recorded eight points in 11 October games, then had 10 in 12 November games before dropping off.
He currently has six points in five games. His four goals have come on just nine shots.
C Alex Galchenyuk, Montreal Canadiens
Galchenyuk has three 5v5 assists on the season, good for a pace of 2.87 assists per 60 minutes. Just 0.87 of those theoretical assists are of the primary variety.
He has added a goal at 5v5 and a power-play assist, but he is averaging a modest 16:01 in total ice time. He has been struggling with possession, posting a CF% of just 49.06.
RW Patrick Kane, Chicago Blackhawks
Six of Kane's seven points on the year have come at 5v5, showing sustainability reminiscent of last season. Through six games he has just one power-play point, an assist - a stark contrast from last year's 37 PP points.
The Blackhawks have five power-play goals as a team, but Kane just hasn't been able to factor in on the man advantage. His luck should change, but last year's total was likely unrepeatable as it was.
C Darren Helm, Detroit Red Wings
The 29-year-old Helm has five points through six games, putting him on pace to shatter his career-high 33 points set in the 2014-15 season. He has been playing with Ws Gustav Nyquist and Thomas Vanek, two of the best offensive talents he has ever been paired with.
Still, he has four goals on just 11 shots on goal. Even if he can produce more assists, he'll lose value with fewer goals.
C Artem Anisimov, Chicago Blackhawks
While the aforementioned Kane has posted a CF% over 54 percent at 5v5, Anisimov is coming in at just 46.67. After scoring 20 goals in 77 games last season, mostly while centering Kane and LW Artemi Panarin, Anisimov already has four goals through his opening seven games.
His 12 shots thus far are ahead of last season's 77-game pace, but he has been more than twice as successful in converting for goals.
G Petr Mrazek, Detroit Red Wings
Mrazek has stopped 20 of the 21 High Danger Shot Attempts he has faced, per Corsica.Hockey. He and teammate Jimmy Howard have the top HDSV% in the league. Mrazek has allowed just five goals on the season at 5v5, but his expected goals allowed (xGA) rises to 7.80.
He has already allowed four power-play goals, as the Red Wings rank 24th in the league with a penalty-kill percentage of 73.9.
C Kyle Turris, Ottawa Senators
Turris' CF rating of 48.00 percent is actually among the Senators' team leaders. Head coach Guy Boucher will need some more time to instil his defensive system, but the talent of the forward group - and D Erik Karlsson - has come through with the sixth-highest goals-per-game average.
Ws Mark Stone and Mike Hoffman are the primary shooters on Ottawa's top line, with Turris a tertiary option.
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